(Thanks to @SBNationNBA for the .gif)

Jan 12, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) brings the ball up court during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers defeated the Rockets 107-100. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets have lost enough games now to drift out of the Western Conference top eight, and into distant mediocrity.

Oct 19, 2012; Tulsa, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden (13) warms up before a game against the Phoenix Suns at the BOK Center. Thunder defeated the Suns 107-97. Mandatory Credit: Beth Hall-US PRESSWIRE

I was not expecting this at all. After reportedly turning down a 4-year, 55-million dollar deal, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded 2012 Sixth Man of the Year and Gold Medalist James Harden to the Houston Rockets along with Daequan Cook, Cole Aldrich and Lazar Hayward in exchange for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, 2 first-round picks and a 2013 second-rounder. NBA players took to twitter to express their shock with this blockbuster deal. After all, it was almost a foregone conclusion that James Harden was going to be a integral part of a potential Thunder dynasty alongside Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and newly resigned Serge Ibaka, right?

There are many ways to look at this trade but I will start off by saying I think this is as rational a blockbuster move as I have seen since Deron Williams was traded to the then New Jersey Nets in February 2011. I give kudos to both teams as I think both the Rockets and Thunder made out very well in this trade. How the Thunder arguably got more in return for James Harden than the Orlando Magic received for Dwight Howard still boggles the mind but I digress. Harden chose long-term financial security and a chance at being “the guy” on his own team over being third on the food chain on a squad that was three games away from winning a championship.  I will break down what this deal means for James Harden, the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

James Harden

I can’t knock a man for looking out for his long-term financial security and I applaud James for getting the max deal he feels he deserves. Much like Joe Johnson when he asked the Phoenix Suns not to match the 70-million dollar contract the Atlanta Hawks signed him to in the summer of 2005, Harden wanted a bigger role elsewhere. With that being said I believe unless the Houston Rockets have other big moves planned going forward, Harden will realize that the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. It will be very different for James being the focus of opponents on a nightly basis and I absolutely expect Harden’s shooting percentages (49.1 percent from the field, 39.0 from downtown) to take a dip.

However there is some hope for Rockets fans that Harden can shoulder the bigger load. In the 526 minute sample where James Harden played without Kevin Durant on the court, he averaged an insane 34.7 points per 40 minutes. Harden became much more aggressive off the dribble with Durant out, with his free throw attempts leaping from five per 40 minutes to more than 13 (Bradford Doolittle/ESPN).

James Harden intends on signing a max contract with the Rockets and though I expect his percentages and efficiency to drop, with more minutes he should score more and should build on an impressive 2011-2012 campaign where he averaged 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 31.4 minutes. A 20, 5 and 5 stat line should be attainable for “The Bearded One” as the Rockets will need him to perform at an All-Star level if they want to contend for a playoff spot.

Houston Rockets

Feb 15, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden (13) dribbles against the Houston Rockets during the second quarter at the Toyota Center. The Rockets won 96-95. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-US Presswire

After years of accumulating assets only to be turned down in numerous overtures for star talent, GM Daryl Morey finally found his guy. Morey was fed up of being in the NBA’s middle class and knows that in this day and age you need stud talent to win in this league. With acquiring Harden, him and Jeremy Lin will surely form one of the most intriguing back courts in the game. Will they be a hype machine that doesn’t produce at all? Will they propel to Rockets to the playoffs? Who knows? if nothing else the Rockets faithful have much reason to be excited for the 2012-13 season and beyond.

I was talking with my brother about it last night and I still don’t understand why the Rockets haven’t been able to get a big-name superstar in recent years. Houston isn’t like Salt Lake City or Cleveland where athletes rarely play there by choice (though money does talk). Its the fourth biggest city in the country so there is plenty to do in terms of nightlife, the women are beautiful by all accounts, there is warm weather year round and no state tax. Add to that a now promising core of Harden, Lin, and Omer Asik along with other young pieces that could turn out to be solid players such as Terrence Jones, Royce White, Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Patterson, and Marcus Morris the Rockets should be a player in a loaded 2013 free agent class.

I truly respect Daryl Morey’s aggressive nature when it comes to making moves and I believe the Harden acquisition should pay huge dividends, particularly in the long-term. I doubt Morey is done in his quest to add another star talent and when he does, they will be a force in the Western Conference sooner than later.

Grade: A-

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oct 17, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard Kevin Martin (12) rests against the Memphis Grizzlies during the second quarter at the Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-US PRESSWIRE

I would like to squash one myth before talking about how this trade affects the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is not a sob story about how the Thunder couldn’t “afford” Harden, because if OKC really wanted to they could have signed Harden to a max extension but chose not to. Its debatable whether Harden is worth that money but that is why the games are played and he will have his chance to prove his worth. The Thunder are a marketable and likable team that has made significant money over the past three seasons and have yet to pay the luxury tax. There is a 0 percent chance that owner Clay Bennett will sell this team any time soon because of the revenue they have brought in and will continue to bring in so long as they are a championship contender. The Thunder have a great home court with their fan base that has sold out every game for the past four seasons and have an equally strong bandwagon following. Does that sound like a team that is struggling financially?

While it may be sad to see James Harden leave all of a sudden, the Oklahoma City Thunder fared about as well as they could if they didn’t intend on keeping him after this season. The Thunder elected to maintain financial flexibility, acquiring Kevin Martin who is in the last year of his contract paying him more than 12 million this season and a potential heir apparent at shooting guard in Jeremy Lamb. They also acquired two first-round draft picks and a second-round pick so they can continue to restock their team with young talent. This trade while it may not be received great by the Thunder faithful is a micrcosm of what makes Sam Presti such an excellent general manager.

People forget that Kevin Martin has been one of the most prolific scorers in the league over the past seven seasons. He has averaged 18.4 points over his career and this total is skewed due to limited playing time in his first two seasons. Much like Harden, Martin does a great job getting to the foul line and is a career 86.5 percent foul shooter so he makes defenses pay for fouling him. While he is a sieve defensively and isn’t as proficient initiating the offense, Kevin Martin should be able to match much of Harden’s scoring production and be a welcome addition to the Thunder bench.

Oct 15, 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard Jeremy Lamb (1) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Rockets 123-104. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

The piece that I’d be most excited about as a Thunder fan however is Jeremy Lamb. I liked him a lot coming out of UConn and  the guy can flat out score. He has plus athleticism and has a ridiculous 6’11” wingspan which should be helpful defensively. Lamb shot 47.8 percent from the field last season and scored 17.7 points a night as a sophomore. While I don’t believe he will ever be a first option on a team, he won’t have to playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Lamb’s ability to move without the ball should make things easier for the Thunder offense.

OKC made this deal with an eye towards the future and were able to save money while not dropping off significantly in talent. Depending on how well Sam Presti uses the three draft picks he acquired in the deal and I wouldn’t bet against him finding another gem, the Thunder may have made themselves an even more dangerous team in the long term.

Grade: A

May 19, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers power forward Pau Gasol (16) blocks a shot by Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden (13) in the first half of game four in the Western Conference semi finals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

James Harden
Resume: 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 31.4 minutes, 312 free throws made (8th in league), 369 free throw attempts (10th in league), 49% FG, 39% 3PT, and 85% FT… Team record in games played: 44-18 (3-1 without)… Playoffs: 16.3 points (career best), 5.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals (career best), 44% FG, 41% 3PT (career best), 86% FT (career best), 13-7 record… Sixth Man of the Year

I mentioned two days ago that Manu Ginobili serves as the model for James Harden, “a lefty sixth man who can come in and change the course of any game no matter how many stars are on the floor.” From a legacy standpoint Harden won’t come close to Ginobili just because of the fact Ginobili is one of the best and most accomplished international players in basketball history. Plus Ginobili killed a damn bat. Unless Harden has a few living in his beard right now, that just isn’t happening.

It’s not unrealistic to think that if James Harden really is Manu Ginobili 2.0, that version could be better than the prototype. Besides the fact that their games are incredibly alike (herky jerky, left handed, plenty of flopping, very capable of facilitating the offense or taking over the scoring burden, and the unique ability to be loved by his team’s fans, hated by opposing fans and appreciated by basketball fans), statistically they are on track with each other. If you look at the regular season numbers of Ginobili in year three (16.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 47% FG, 38%3 PT, 80% FT) compared to Harden’s (his numbers at the top of the page), you’ll see they are very similar. Ginobili has the edge in postseason play to this point, but Harden’s had his share of moments this past spring too.

Sure, James Harden dropped a mini stink bomb in the Finals, but does Oklahoma City even get to the NBA Finals without the Beard? As great as Durant and Westbrook are and were in the 2012 postseason, I say no. Harden is the factor that puts them over the top. When Durant and Westbrook couldn’t get it going, Harden was the guy getting it done. He closed out game 4 of the 1^st round, carried Oklahoma City in stretches during the 2^nd round series vs. Los Angeles (and got to the free throw line plenty, enough that I got more than a few outraged text messages from my cousin/Lakers fan Pauley), and delivered a dagger three in San Antonio in game 5. Let me put it this way… even with the injuries to Wade, Rose, Howard and Bosh, Harden doesn’t get a spot on Team USA without a great playoff run. Everyone claiming Harden choked during the playoffs, simmer down.

A few times on this countdown I’ve talked about a player being forced into a role he isn’t quite qualified for. For the first time I might be ranking a player who is capable of jumping a role. Could Harden handle the burden of being the 2^nd best guy on a great team? I would argue yes. I look at the body of work Harden put forth in the regular season and postseason up to the Finals rather than just the Finals. Assuming the Oklahoma City trio stays together Harden is likely never better than the third best guy on his own team. Harden surpassing Durant… not happening ever. Harden surpassing Westbrook… you might be able to talk me into that one, but it’s still unlikely.

Now the debate becomes how high James Harden’s ceiling is. Harden is only 23 years old and is already a top 25 player in my eyes. Coming up in the rankings, there are still four Lakers, three Celtics, and three Heat. In today’s superpower/big three era of basketball it’s not out of the question to think that when Harden is in his prime he couldn’t be a top 15 player. As for now, Harden will have to settle for being the most overqualified sixth man in the league and rocking the most bad ass beard in professional sports.

Apr 28, 2012; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder small forward Kevin Durant (35) shoots the game winning shot against the Dallas Mavericks during the fourth quarter in game one of the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Richard Rowe-US PRESSWIRE

MVP candidate Kevin Durant struggled with his jump shot all night long.  But did that stop him from taking the last shot in the final seconds when Oklahoma City was down by one?

Not a chance.

Durant’s difficult, contested floater from the foul line barely dropped in before the clock struck zero, and  the Thunder escaped with a 99-98 victory against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the First Round.

Should Dallas be encouraged or discouraged?

After Dirk Nowitzki’s and-one play with 2:20 left in the fourth quarter, the Mavs were up by a comfortable seven points and had this game won.  But some costly turnovers and giving up back-to-back three point plays in the final minutes became their undoing.  Rick Carlisle and Nowitzki blamed the loss on not only these crucial mistakes in the final minutes, but also their inability to get the ball to red-hot Jason Terry (who had 20 points in the first 3 quarters, but none thereafter).  Terry’s explosion in the first half made up for a relatively so-so overall game for Dirk, who put the Mavs in a position to win when he scored 11 of his 25 points in the last 5 minutes.

Still, the Mavs should be encouraged despite the loss.  Not many expected them to be in a position to steal home court advantage, yet they really dictated play for all but the final two minutes of this game.

Apr 26, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Dallas Mavericks shooting guard Jason Terry (31) looks on against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 106-89. Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

Should Oklahoma City be encouraged or discouraged?

Durant may have provided the last-second heroics, but it was really James Harden who kept OKC in the game.  In his first game since suffering a concussion from Ron Artest’s vicious elbow, Harden scored 19 points and made several timely baskets to keep the Thunder within striking distance.

In the end, I’m not sure if the Thunder should be too high on this win.  Many of the issues that made OKC a mediocre team for the month of April aren’t going away like most expected, perhaps chief among them that Durant still can’t find consistency with his jumper.  One saving grace is that Russell Westbrook seemed to have found his shot, days after going a miserable 3-22 against the Lakers earlier last week.  Still, if not for Harden and an above-average scoring performance by Serge Ibaka (22 points), Dallas could very well have dominated this game.  Durant and Westbrook need to find ways to penetrate Dallas’s zone defense and not settle for outside jumpers,  a trend that has really hurt them all month long.

What should we expect in Game 2?

As I said in my series prediction, Dallas has no fear of the Thunder – a team they made relatively quick work of in last year’s Conference Finals.  Durant, Westbrook, and Harden all have to be playing well in order to knock off Dallas in this series.  For Dallas, as long as they can out-rebound the Thunder and get to the foul line as well as they did in Game 1, I expect Rick Carlisle to rally his guys and come out with the same effort and steal home court advantage. Either way, this is shaping up to be the best first-round series in the playoffs.

I join Thunderous Intentions editor Andrew Kennedy on Fansided’s NBA Podcast to discuss the Thunder’s late game offense, the league’s best crunch time player, and my choices for regular season awards.

You can also download the podcast here.

MVP – Coach of the Year – Defensive Player of the Year – Sixth Man

Most years, this is one of the tougher and most competitive awards to give out.  However, the last two years have been exceptions to that trend.  Last season, Kevin Love catapulted himself into the best power forward in the league, thus making the 2011 honor a no-brainer.  This year, we’ve had several players make great strides in their game, but one stood out the most.  Here are my top five candidates:

5.  Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons

Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

After a few lackluster seasons, the Pistons have been somewhat of an afterthought in the basketball world.  But their biggest bright spot, by far, has been the emergence of their new big man, Greg Monroe.  He has quietly blossomed into one of the league’s best centers, and has helped a relatively weak team overachieve; on paper, they should be one of the worst teams in the league.  And the play of Monroe is the biggest reason why.  They even have a winning record (14-12) at home to boot.  As Brandon Knight develops, and Rodney Stuckey continues to improve, Joe Dumars needs to continue to build around Monroe to make the Pistons relevant again.

4.  Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies

When Pau Gasol was traded from Memphis to the Lakers in 2009, the Lakers gave up virtually nothing for him; Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, and an imminently-retiring Aaron McKie.  But the Lakers also included a couple of draft picks, one of which happened to be the rights to Pau’s brother Marc.  As the only (and I mean, ONLY) saving grace from that trade, Marc has morphed into an All-Star Center for the Grizz.  His numbers may not wow everyone, but his impact on the floor has made Memphis a winning team.  His confidence has peaked to the point where he looked like the best Gasol on the court vs. the Lakers last weekend.  Furthermore, when coaches vote you into the All-Star reserves over your perennial championship-contending older brother, you know you’re on the right track.

3.  James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder

As my pick for the Sixth Man of the Year award, Harden has become a huge part of the Thunder team.  In the shadow of  superstar teammates Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Harden has become one of OKC’s most underrated strengths that has propelled them atop the NBA standings.  Championship teams generally need more than just two creators on offense, and Harden gives them an elite third option.

2.  Ryan Anderson

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Does anyone remember that Anderson played for the Nets?  Didn’t think so.  Already in his 4^th year, Anderson has shown that you can improve considerably even after your first few years in the league (ala Kris Humphries last season).  He has established himself as the clear-cut 2^nd best Magic player behind Dwight Howard, and is absolutely deadly from three-point range.  He also is one of the better offensive rebounding big men (ranking in the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate), which is very impressive when you consider two main things working against him:  1)  as an outside shooter, he often finds himself 30+ feet from the basket, and 2)  most of the team’s rebounds being hoarded up by Howard.  In fact, there aren’t too many big men in the league that are equally proficient in rebounding and outside shooting – other than he and Kevin Love, that is.  If and when Howard leaves the Magic, Anderson may very well be their franchise player for the time being.

1.  Jeremy Lin

Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

Saw this coming, didn’t you?  Forget improvement in his numbers for a second, even though those alone can make a case for him; Jeremy Lin is the only player in the history of the NBA to make a gargantuan leap into stardom that has captivated the entire world.  Linsanity was a once-in-a-lifetime type stuff that NEEDS to be recognized in some form, and this award seems to be the most appropriate.  The phenomenon has quieted down for sure, as defenses clamped down on him, and he later suffered a knee injury that will shut him down the rest of the season.  But as far as Most Improved, it doesn’t get any better than this:  a guy who slept on his brother’s couch to save money in anticipation of unemployment – days before getting CUT – just so happened to get his number called by ex-Coach Mike D’Antoni for a mightily struggling Knicks team.  The rest was history.

You can argue that he hasn’t played enough games this season to deserve the award.  But whether he wins this or not, most people will remember the 2011-12 season as the year Linsanity happened.

*Coming up next:  Defensive Player of the Year 

MVP – Coach of the Year – Defensive Player of the Year – Most Improved Player

2011-2012 Sixth Man of the Year Candidates:

• James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder

Currently having a break-out season, Harden might even be a candidate for Most Improved. Player  His superstar teammates Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook might get all the attention, but Harden is a hugereason why OKC is on pace to earn the league’s best record this season.  He might even be the team’s best playmaker and wing defender, often drawing the tougher assignments (e.g. guarding Kobe Bryant in their Sunday game vs. LA).

O.J. Mayo – Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

•  O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies

Here’s a guy who has been openly shopped by the Grizz for the last two seasons – and nearly traded to the Pacers last season (which wasnixed only because the trade occurred shortly after the trade deadline).  Yes, his production has slipped considerably since his first two seasons, where he averaged 18 PPG.  But this year, Mayo has accepted a lesser role, and his on-court performance suggests he holds no grudge against his team despite being in trade rumors and losing his starting role.   With Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph missing a lot of time this season, Mayo is a big reason why Memphis has stayed afloat in the loaded Western Conference.

Jason Terry – Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

•  Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

Terry is a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate, consistently providing a spark off the Mavericks bench.  With the team acquiring several players adding to their bench, Terry was not expected to carry as much of a load this year.  However, with various injuries to several players and with Lamar Odom struggling mightily, the Mavs have had to rely on Terry’s scoring just as much as before.  We’re all grown accustomed to Terry’s consistent production and effort on a nightly basis.  But with the Mavericks still in position to make a playoff push, you still have to appreciate Terry for his off-the-bench contributions.

•  Mo Williams, Los Angeles Clippers
  

  Mo Williams – Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

With Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups coming on board, many questioned Mo Williams’ fit to this much-improved Clippers squad.  But Mo has fulfilled his lessened role extremely well, averaging a very efficient 13.6 PPG and 3.1 APG in 28.8 MPG.  With three current/former All-Stars on their roster – Paul, Billups, and Williams – the Clippers have one of the better guard rotations of the league, before an unfortunate season-ending Achilles injury to Billups.  Now out with a sprained toe, it remains to be seen whether Mo-Will can finish the season strong upon his return.  And now, with Billups out for the season, the Clippers will need Williams at his best if they are to make any noise in the playoffs.

Who Should Win:  James Harden, OKC

Who Will Win:  James Harden, OKC

James Harden – Mandatory Credit: Richard Rowe-US PRESSWIRE

I don’t think voters will be able to ignore Harden’s indispensible presence on the league’s best regular season team.  And rightfully so.

*Coming Soon:  Most Improved Player Prediction

Feb 27, 2011; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden (13) handles the ball against Los Angeles Lakers guard Derek Fisher (2) during the first half at the Oklahoma City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D Smith-US PRESSWIRE

Take: That Harden draws shooting fouls at a more prolific rate than guys like Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, and teammate Russell Westbrook will no doubt surprise some, though those that have really followed the third-year guard’s career growth surely knew this was a possibility.  Since he became comfortable in his role as OKC’s ace sixth man scorer and playmaker mid-way through last season, Harden has shown off a knack to get in the paint and wreak havoc off pick and rolls few in the world approach.  He uses supreme understanding of pace and angles to complement his awesome handle and underrated first step to blow by primary and help defenders before aggressively attacking in the paint.  It’s truly a trip to watch, the type of nuanced, smart, sneakily athletic dribble-to-drive game not seen since Manu Ginobili and Brandon Roy were in their primes.

So why does this matter? Isn’t this just stating the obvious? Well, yes, but a recent roster development in OKC makes driving this fact home and watching it closely all the more important – the Thunder’s acquisition of Derrick Fisher.

Fisher’s best days as a player are far behind him, as both the naked and analytical eyes plainly suggest.  He’s shooting poorly from the field and behind the arc, has no semblance of an off-the-dribble game, and strength and experience are now his best assets as a defender.  But despite all that, a GM like Sam Presti and an organization like OKC wouldn’t have acquired a presence like Fisher if they didn’t plan to play him.  Which is where Harden comes in.

Since Eric Maynor’s season-ending injury and with Westbrook out of the game, the lion’s share of ballhandling duties were given to rookie PG Reggie Jackson, and he performed admirably as the second unit’s lead man.  Fisher’s arrival, though, not only forces Jackson out of the rotation, but also Harden to play more minutes on the ball as a de-facto point guard to ease the offensive – talk about a pun – duties of Fisher.  Finally see where this is going?

Either Harden will play the role of a pass-first, pick-your-spots point guard like Maynor the ten or so minutes he and Fisher make up OKC’s backcourt, or he’ll be a ball-dominating, playmaking aggressor.  And if his guard-leading free throw rate is any indication, the latter scenario is a fantastic and exciting one for the Thunder.

This may seem inconsequential now – Westbrook already plays a ton of minutes, will play more come the postseason, and demands the ball – but the eight to twelve minutes a game Harden may play the point in the playoffs are the type that can change the complexion of a game.  And as we all know first-hand after Dallas’ 0-2 comeback against Miami last year in the NBA Finals, a single game can change the complexion of a series.

Raise your hand if you picked Portland to beat Dallas in the first round. Own it.

There was little reason to believe the Mavericks could get here. They had an impressive regular season, but they were saddled with an aging supporting cast and a star who may or may not have seen his best days in 2006. Beyond that, the Mavericks found themselves facing a particularly tough path to the Finals. All the Mavericks had to do in order to reach the Finals was to take down fan darling Portland, the defending NBA Champions and the best young team in the game.

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