• Stat: In his 29 point performance in the Celtics 92-91 game 1 victory, Kevin Garnett made six of nine (66.6%) attempts from 16′-23′.  During the regular season, he averaged 2.9 makes out of 6.0 attempts from that distance per game, good for a conversion rate of 48.0%.
• Take: Few expected Garnett’s season-high 28 point explosion in game 6 of round one against the Atlanta Hawks, and even fewer saw him replicating that performance and establishing a new season-high in points in the opener of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Philadelphia.  Obviously, though, it’s time we stop doubting that Garnett is incapable of such outings, as a convincing case can be made he’s been the MVP of the postseason as we near the midpoint of the playoffs.  In analyzing his 57 point explosion over the last two games, much has been made of KG’s new commitment to establishing position on the block and scoring from there a la big men of lore.  And while it’s true that in the playoffs he’s looked more comfortable and adept working in the post than he did for most of the season, the majority of Garnett’s shot attempts his last two outings have been the mid-range jumpers that have been the staple of his offensive repertoire since arriving in Boston.  Thirteen of his shots came from outside ten feet but inside the three point line in the Celtics’ final game against Atlanta, and he took thirteen more from that range in Saturday’s game 1 win over the Sixers.  That’s 26 of KG’s last 39 shot attempts that have come via the mid-range jumper, a percentage of 66.7 that is actually higher than his regular season per game average of 63.8%.  So the notion that Garnett’s adjusted his game and changed his favorite spots on the floor to spur this recent scoring outburst is far from the truth.  The bigger takeaway – and one that should worry Boston given the notoriously fickle nature of jump-shooting – is that he’s converted on a seemingly impossible-to-sustain rate of long two-point shots, and that’s never been more true than in game 1 against Philadelphia.  In fact, three of Garnett’s last four attempts in game 1 came from outside seventeen feet, shots Philly isn’t necessarily displeased with Boston getting in crunch time.  The only problem for the Sixers is that he made two of them, the first pulling the Celtics within a point with 4:26 left and the second putting them ahead by four with 2:16 remaining.  If Garnett misses those shots and goes a pedestrian 4-9 on jumpers from 16′-23′ as opposed to a scorching 6-9, the Sixers likely leave the TD Garden with a 1-0 lead and the hobbling Celtics perhaps irrevocably damaged.  Instead, the narrative’s the opposite – KG’s playing as well as he ever has in Green, the Celtics escaped a good effort from Philly despite a poor shooting night from Paul Pierce, they had a day to heal, and are in control of the series.  Such is the make-or-miss way of the NBA, and taking that into consideration Boston cannot count on similar output from Garnett every game, because it’s likely he will revert to the mean with a cold shooting night or two sooner rather than later.

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder (9:30ET on TNT): Game 1

• Stat: The Thunder’s offensive rating against the Lakers this season with Kendrick Perkins on the bench is 117.1.  With Perkins on the floor, OKC’s offensive efficiency drops to 97.6.
  

  April 22, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Kendrick Perkins (5) reacts to a foul call against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half of the game at the Staples Center. Lakers won in double OT 114-106. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

• Take: Much has been made of Perkins’ hip injury and his status for game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Los Angeles Lakers.  Without Perkins altogether or even if he’s limited, the story goes, OKC is incapable of dealing with the strength and girth of Andrew Bynum and will get thrashed on the interior.  While that may look the case on paper, the advanced statistics paint a much different story.  The Lakers as a whole and Bynum individually performed worse offensively when Perkins was on the bench, yes, but nary enough to paint his absence as a net negative.  LAL’s offensive efficiency was just 1.3 points better without Perk on the floor, while his impact on Bynum was more stark but still manageable at six additional points per 36 minutes for LA’s enigmatic center.  Perkins’ abysmal +/- numbers have been chronicled at StS and elsewhere this season, so that pundits and fans continue to point to his playing status as a potential major swing in this series is surprising.  In that vein, something that should shock absolutely no one (and finally circles back to our stat of the day) – the Thunder have fared remarkably better against the Lakers in 2012 with Perkins riding the pine.  On the strength of that awesome offensive rating of 117.1, OKC outscores LAL by 14.6 points without Perkins compared to just .9 points when he’s on the floor acting as nothing better than a space-eater on defense and space-detractor on offense.  The major, overarching, and perhaps cynical takeaway is that the Thunder are better off with Perkins’ injury lingering for a bit longer.  Unfortunately, then, he’s a game-time decision but seems likely to play in game 1.  Watch his movement and effectiveness, though, as if he’s laboring through pain and can’t push Bynum off the block Scott Brooks surely won’t be reluctant to replace him in the lineup.  And if that happens, the Thunder are no doubt better off.

Playoff Stats of the Day (5/14): Kevin Garnett’s Unsustainable Offense and the Positive of Kendrick Perkins’ Injury - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

May 7, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) moves the ball against the defense of Memphis Grizzlies power forward Zach Randolph (50) during the overtime period of game four of the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (9:00ET on ESPN): Clippers lead series 3-1

• Stat: In five career “close-out” playoff games – contests in which either team faces a must win scenario – Chris Paul averaged 17 points, 8.6 rebounds, 11.6 assists, 2.6 steals, and 3 turnovers while shooting 45% (7.2-16.0) from the field.
• Take: Chris Paul is a different animal in the playoffs, that much we know by now.  He single-handedly willed an overmatched Hornets team to a six game series with the Lakers last year, and has arguably been been this postseason’s MVP in leading the Clippers to a 3-2 advantage over the Memphis Grizzlies going into tonight’s game 6 at Staples Center.  He’s received special and deserved attention recently for dominating fourth quarters and coming up huge when it matters most, so one would expect Paul to be extra-excellent when his team is on the verge of elimination or the brink of advancing to the next round.  His career averages – all with the New Orleans Hornets, of course – in these instances underwhelm, though, as he’s actually performed below his playoff norms in points and shooting percentage.  For his playoff career, Paul averages 22.0 points per game on 48.9% shooting, well above his “close-out” marks of 17.0 and 45% despite taking almost exactly the same amount of shots from the field (16.1 to 16.0).  Five games is an admittedly small sample size, but in general Paul has failed to rise to the challenge in these situations the way he has time and time again in most every pivotal fourth quarter.  He can hardly be faulted for his 1-4 record in these games, as the Hornets were the lower seeded team in every series but the 2008 Western Conference semi-finals when New Orleans surrendered a 3-1 lead to the San Antonio Spurs.  He’s with a better and more talented team now, and one suspects as his career in Los Angeles goes on he’ll have more success in closing teams out and/or pushing a series an additional game.  But for now, Paul’s track record here is questionable at best, especially considering his growing, deserved, and well-earned reputation as basketball’s ultimate “big-moment” player.  He’s got a huge opportunity to change that tonight, but is supposedly a game-time decision as the result of a lingering groin injury.  That’s all talk, of course, and Paul will surely start at point guard for LAC tonight as long as he can limp up and down the floor a la Isiah Thomas.  And knowing the competitive spirit of Paul, an Isiah-esque performance would surprise no one, but make sure you don’t expect it – CP3, healthy or not, still has something to prove in games like tonight’s.

Playoff Stat of the Day (5/11): Chris Paul and Close-Out Games - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

May 8, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers shooting guard Evan Turner (12) shoots over Chicago Bulls center Omer Asik (3) during the first half of game five in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: In Tuesday’s 77-69 loss, the Sixers shot 8-25 at the rim for a conversion rate of 32%.
• Take: Without Derrick Rose and facing a defense the caliber of Philly’s it’s become obvious Chicago is woefully ill-equipped to score with efficiency or consistency.  Their average offensive efficiency since game 2 is a lowly 90.85, a number that would rank 14th among 16 playoff teams and is almost 15 full points below their regular season mark.  And without Joakim Noah in the lineup (he’s questionable for game 6), Chicago is missing a player they rely on for much-overlooked but much-needed offense via offensive rebounds, finishing off of pick-and-rolls, and proverbial hustle baskets.  It’s a good thing, then, that backup center Omer Asik provides defense – most notably rim protection – that Noah doesn’t.  Philly’s truly awful shooting numbers at the rim in game 5 are no fluke; Asik and Taj Gibson protect the paint better than any pair of bigs in the NBA and have been doing so for the better part of the last two seasons.  They combined for 55 minutes and seven blocks in game 5 with Noah sidelined, and along with active hands from players like Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng severely limited Philly’s previously solid proficiency at the rim.  If Noah plays – an obvious plus for the Bulls – they’ll have to compensate elsewhere for his inability to challenge penetrators like Asik does, and it most likely will be at the other end of the floor.  For while Asik is undoubtedly one of the league’s best defenders, the discrepancy between he and Noah on defense is small, and that can’t be said for their relative impact on the Bulls offense.

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics (8:00ET on TNT): Celtics lead series 3-2

May 6, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Boston Celtics small forward Paul Pierce (34) drives the ball against the Atlanta Hawks in the third quarter of game four in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: Paul Pierce’s offensive rating in the playoffs is 94.9, just .2 points higher than Boston’s series-long average of 94.7.
• Take: It’s often said Boston goes offensively as Pierce goes, and on the surface and for most of the last few seasons that’s made sense.  Pierce is the only Celtic capable of consistently producing his own offense, and the numbers consistently show Boston is more positively influenced by Pierce on that end than any other player.  That hasn’t been the case thus far in the playoffs, though, as Kevin Garnett (102.4) ranks as Boston’s most effective offensive player, and Rajon Rondo (100.2), Ray Allen (97.8), and even Avery Bradley (97.0) outpace Pierce in offensive rating.  This is hardly indicative of Pierce’s true value to the Celtics against Atlanta, obviously, but to suggest a Boston attack without a full strength Pierce – he’s been bothered by a knee injury since game 4 – is doomed to doldrums of non-scoring just isn’t the case.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (10:30ET on TNT): Lakers lead series 3-2

May 4, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Andre Miller (24) takes the ball up the court during the first half of game three in the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: Denver’s backcourt combination of Ty Lawson-Andre Miller’s playoff plus/minus is +16.9 per 36 minutes.
• Take: We all knew coming into this series that Denver would have to use their advantages of speed and quickness to push the much bigger Lakers into the type of uptempo game Los Angeles tries to avoid.  So it should be no surprise that employing two point guards in the backcourt has netted such overwhelmingly positive results for the Nuggets.  That those players have the differing and diverse skill-sets of Lawson and Miller while maintaining a shared love of extreme pace is absolutely perfect for how Denver needs to play to enjoy sustained success in this series.  Lawson and Miller have been paired together for 79 minutes, while the former has played 90 and the latter 69 without his favorite and most effective – if stylistically unorthodox – backcourt mate.  The on-court numbers for each without the other are just as negative as the opposite are positive, best indicated by Lawson’s +/- of  -8.8 and Miller’s mark of -11.5.  Lawson’s play, though, is especially influenced when he’s on the court with Miller.  He averages 11.1 fewer points, six fewer assists, and shoots 25% worse from the field when he’s the true point guard in a traditional NBA lineup with an established shooting guard and small forward at his side.  George Karl has never been averse to playing with lineups that defy conventional position ideals and give his team a plus on one end even if it nets a negative on the other.  With these two, though, that’s not a problem, as Miller is perfectly comfortable defending the LA wing opposite Kobe Bryant.  So as the expected offensive gains of playing these two together have played out, so haven’t any major deficiencies on defense.  As Denver faces an elimination game tonight, expect Karl to go to the Lawson-Miller backcourt more than he ever has, and don’t be surprised if they lead the Nuggets to what just a few days ago looked like an improbable seventh game.

Playoff Stats of the Day (5/10): Omer Asik, the Celtics Offense without Paul Pierce, and Ty Lawson-Andre Miller. - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

May 6, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague (0) drives the ball against Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo (9) in the second quarter of game four in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the TD Garden. The Celtics defeated the Atlanta Hawks 101-79. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

When Rajon Rondo was suspended for Game 2, the Boston Celtics still found a way to win in Atlanta.  With Josh Smith out of the lineup for Game 3, the Hawks nearly returned the favor of getting a road win without their star player.  In the end, the Celtics held off the Hawks in overtime.  Al Horford found his way back to the court in Game 4 after a 4-month layoff, but his teammates were just as rusty as he was as the Celtics routed Atlanta.  With a game under his belt, Horford played a whopping 41 minutes, scored 19 points and pulled 11 rebounds, and led the Hawks to a Game 5 victory.

At last, we will our first official Game 6 of the postseason!

Keys for Atlanta

If not for Horford’s tremendous stop on Rajon Rondo during the final seconds of Game 5, The Hawks could have gone fishin’ by now.  To me, the turning point of Game 5 was Horford stepping up his defense in the 2^nd half.  It helped him get into a groove offensively, as well.  He did a good job on Brandon Bass, closing out on his 17-20 footers – a range of shots which he seemingly never misses and earns him the nickname “Bass-O-Matic.”  After shaking off the rust in Game 4, Horford reminded us why he is such an important piece to Atlanta on both ends of the court – whether he was hitting perimeter shots, or providing a defensive presence in the interior.

As encouraging as Horford’s comeback has been, Atlanta has several issues to address elsewhere.  In Game 5, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith were a combined 12-33 (36%) from the field and turned the ball over 8 times – in large part due to Rondo’s omnipresence on the Hawks’ passing lanes.  They managed to squeak by last time, but they MUST shoot better and take better care of the ball if the Hawks have any chance of forcing a Game 7.  Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams – who caught fire from beyond the arc in the 2^nd quarter to rally the Hawks back from an early deficit – must continue to make significant contributions, as well.

Keys for Boston

The Celtics nearly closed out the series on Tuesday night despite a mediocre performance from Paul Pierce (16 points on 7-17 FG), thanks to some pesky defense – especially from Rajon Rondo.  When Rondo is locked in defensively, he causes absolute havoc on the Hawks’ offense.  Johnson and Smith probably had nightmares of Rondo, who deflected several of their passes and had five steals in the game.  He even picked off Josh Smith’s inbound pass at the end of Game 5 to give the Celtics one last chance to finish off the series.

To finish off the Hawks, the Celtics must capitalize on being at home and muster the energy they usually do at the Boston Garden.  Avery Bradley  has done a good job harassing Joe Johnson, who has been quite shaky with the ball in this series.  Also, I think Doc Rivers’s priority should be to slow down Al Horford.  To do this, I think he will have Kevin Garnett match up against him.  If Pierce puts his imprint on the game early and if Garnett can slow down Al Horford, the Celtics should find a way to close out the series.

Prediction

Al Horford is only getting more comfortable since his return from injury, and will make it tough for Boston again.  But this time, I think Doc Rivers will make an adjustment and make Josh Smith be the one taking outside jump shots instead of Horford.  Atlanta has also had trouble getting consistent contributions from its role players on the road, which was a big reason why they got blown out in Game 4 in Boston.  Unless Johnson and Smith are fantastic, I think Boston will feed off their home crowd in Game 6 and advance to the Conference Semis.

Boston Celtics–Atlanta Hawks: Game 6 Preview - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Box Score

Quick Recap: Trailing by two after the third quarter, the  Pacers used a 36-16 fourth quarter to pull away from the Magic and take the first round series. Danny Granger led the way for Indiana with 25 points, but Darren Collison was the difference, netting 19 points on 9-for-10 shooting from the field. With the win, the Pacers advance to the second round where they will face either the Miami Heat or the New York Knicks.

Keys for Indiana in the second round

Early leads: In almost every game of the series against the Magic, the Pacers jumped off to a double-digit first quarter lead. That can make a big difference, especially for a team that is more than likely going to be the underdog in the second round. If Indiana continues to jump out to early leads, it will put pressure on their opponents.

Danny Granger: In three out of the five games of this series, Granger shot 40% or worse from the field, and attempted 20 shots or more in all but one game. The Pacers will need  better shooting performances from Granger if they have a chance of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals.

Assists: More than likely, the Pacers will see the Heat in round two. Indiana ranked second to last in assists per game this past season, and going up against great perimeter defenders in Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Shane Battier will make it difficult for the one-on-one (Paul George, Granger) players to score. That means Indiana will need to get more drive and kicks from Collison and George Hill.

Controlling the fast break: Indiana did a great job of this against Orlando, holding the Magic to just 13 fast break points the entire series (of course, some of that is due to Orlando’s inability to get into the open court). Whether it’s the Heat or the Knicks in the second round, the Pacers will want keep the pace slow and their opponent out of the open court.

David West: West’s production improved drastically in the postseason and was one of the main reasons that Indiana was able to dispose of the Magic so easily. West averaged 12 points and seven rebounds per game in the regular season, but improved to 16 and 10 in this series. If West’s solid production holds up, the Pacers can be very good.

Bench play: The Pacers have a superior bench to both the Heat and the Knicks, so no matter the second round matchup, the Pacers should have that advantage. Unfortunately, the bench didn’t look great in the Orlando series, but it did play much better in Games 4 and 5. The performance of the bench could make or break Indiana’s season.

Indiana Pacers–Orlando Magic: Pacers Advance To Second Round, What Lies Ahead? - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Apr 30, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat shooting guard Dwyane Wade (3) shoots over New York Knicks guard Landry Fields (2) during the first half of game two in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: Dwyane Wade has finished on 21 of his 24 attempts from the restricted area in the playoffs, good for a conversion rate of 88%.
• Take: That this series is still going on is a surprise, and we’ve seen nothing over its first four games to assume the Knicks have a legitimate chance at forcing a game 6 tonight in Miami.  Save for another Carmelo Anthony explosion and a barrage of three-pointers, the Heat should win comfortably tonight.  So our attention goes to one of the most overlooked aspects of the entire season – the crafty finishing ability of Dwyane Wade in the post.  Obviously, not all of his 21 makes in the restricted area thus far against New York have come via post-ups, but enough have to drive home the point that Wade’s back-to-the-basket game is truly something to behold.  Blessed with supreme overall body strength and long arms, Wade has no trouble finishing over taller defenders in the post.  He routinely takes one or two dribbles to establish deeper position, and often acts as a true big man by utilizing hook shots with either hand over the top of his defender.  Additionally, Wade does a fantastic job of coming off baseline cross screens and sealing his man off for a quick entry pass.  He’s done this routinely against New York and Landry Fields, perfectly planting his feet and using his lower half to create the correct to receive the ball from LeBron James or Mario Chalmers.  Maybe most impressive, though, is how comfortable Wade is using his off-hand; because of his accuracy turning over his right shoulder, defenders can’t shade him one way or the other.  James has received a lot of attention for the improvements made to his repertoire down low, but Wade is at the very least nearly his equal here, craft and nuance that James can only hope to learn in the future.  This is surely something to watch going forward, as Wade will face a different beast in round two against the Pacers; Indy’s likely matchup for him, Paul George, is a legitimate 6’9” with elastic arms and one of the best athletes in the game.  Whether or not Wade can score efficiently in the post against George is one the games within the game that will be huge in determining the series’ outcome.

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (9:30ET on TNT): Clippers lead series 3-1

May 7, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) moves the ball against the defense of Memphis Grizzlies power forward Zach Randolph (50) during the overtime period of game four of the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: Chris Paul’s crunch time plus/minus in the playoffs is +38.6.  His net efficiency rating – the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency – is 44.5.
• Take: The Stat of the Day on April 12 touched on Paul’s individual aggression and brilliance in the clutch, but noted how the Clippers were actually been less effective this season despite that.  Well, that hasn’t been the case thus far for Paul and his team in the playoffs.  It’s been the exact opposite, actually, as Paul’s workload has increased and LAC’s extreme effectiveness in crunch time has been the one thing separating them from the Grizzlies in this series.  Let’s micro-bullet for ease and emphasis:
• Regular Season Clutch Points Per 36 Minutes/Postseason Clutch Points Per 36 Minutes – 30.8/41.1
• Field Goal Percentage – 42% / 67%
• Offensive Rating  – 105.6/121.5
• Defensive Rating – 101.3/77.0
• Usage Rate – 36.5% / 38.9%
• No, this is hardly revelatory stuff; Paul’s incredible play down the stretch has provided this postseason with its finest moments and most popular talking points.  But flushed out, the analytics are even more impressive than the eye-test.  Keep all of this in mind when every remaining game of this series – let’s hope it’s three, by the way – inevitably comes down to the wire.  Paul is as locked in as he’s ever been, and what he’s doing to Memphis when it matters most may go down as some of the best individual play in postseason history if it continues.

Playoff Stats of the Day (5/9): Dwyane Wade’s Post Game and Chris Paul’s Clutch Heroics - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Apr 28, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Orlando Magic power forward Glen Davis (11) shoots the ball against Indiana Pacers center Roy Hibbert (55) during game one in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Orlando defeated Indiana 81-77. Mandatory Credit: Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: The Indiana Pacers lead all postseason teams in rebound rate, grabbing 54.7% of available misses (Hollinger of ESPN Insider).
• Take: This series would be a much different one with Dwight Howard.  We all know that and knew it before round one began, but how his absence would manifest itself most was anyone’s guess.  Would Roy Hibbert use overwhelming length to score at ease over Glen Davis? Without someone protecting the Orlando rim would Indy guards attack the paint at will? Could the Magic consistently score? How much was Howard’s presence responsible for his team’s success from three-point range? And Howard’s absence has undoubtedly mattered in each of those aspects in more, albeit some more than others.  But in no area have the Magic suffered more than on the glass.  The Pacers ranked ninth in rebound rate during the regular season, so they’re hardly slouches here.  Orlando, while ranking thirteenth actually pulled down just .2% fewer of available boards than Indy.  So had Howard been in the lineup, it would have been reasonable to expect these teams to rebound to a relative stalemate.  But replace him with Davis and Earl Clark and the Pacers are monsters, grabbing misses at a rate that would have led the league in the regular season by .8%.  Assuming Indy advances to face the Miami Heat – a relative certainty given each team’s 3-1 lead, home court advantage, and clear talent edge – this will be something to watch.  Are the Pacers just kicking the undermanned, undersized Magic when they’re down? Or have they started to use all that length to become a consistent juggernaut on the boards? Only time will tell of course, but one suspects it’s the former.

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (8:00ET on TNT): Celtics lead series 3-1

May 6, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Atlanta Hawks center Jason Collins (34) drives the ball against Boston Celtics power forward Kevin Garnett (5) in the first quarter of game four in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the TD Garden. The Celtics defeated the Atlanta Hawks 101-79. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: The Boston Celtics were by far the worst offensive rebounding team in the league during the regular season, collecting just 19.74% of their own misses.  Second-to-last ranked Golden State rebounded 3.14% more of their misses than the Celtics.
• Take: It makes sense that Boston was one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in NBA history this year.  They shot a very good 46% from the field as a team (fifth in the league), played an unorthodox style in which their starting bigs did most of the floor spacing, and just didn’t have the necessary size, athleticism, or both to make a mark in that regard.  And they knew all that, so then there’s the whole thing where they didn’t even try to get offensive boards, instead opting to set up their elite defense.  So how does this relate to Boston’s first round series with Atlanta? Despite the Celtics’ futility on the glass (not just on the offensive side, by the way), Hawks coach Larry Drew has played offensively-challenged behemoths Jason Collins and Erick Dampier extensive minutes.  Why? Yes, Atlanta is without the services of Zaza Pachulia and just got a limited Al Horford back for game 4, but they have the rangy, versatile athletes to compensate by playing small.  And against Boston there’s little chance of that strategy coming back to bite you where it normally would – rebounding.  The inclusion of Collins and Dampier in the lineup would be one thing, of course, if the Hawks were using their strength and girth for Pacers-like dominance on the boards, but that hasn’t been the case; Atlanta ranks seventh in rebound rate among playoff teams and Boston tenth (ESPN Insider).  So what explains Drew’s rotation? Only he really knows, but what we all do is that the Hawks would be better served against Boston’s defensive attack if Tracy McGray, Marvin Williams, or even Vladimir Radmanovic took the lion’s share of minutes from Collins and Dampier for game 5 as Atlanta’s backup bigs.

Playoff Stats of the Day – Part I (5/8): On Rebounding in Indiana Pacers–Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks–Boston Celtics - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

March 30, 2012; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz guard Alec Burks (10) dribbles during the second half against the Sacramento Kings at Energy Solutions Arena. The Kings defeated the Jazz 104-103. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: Jazz wings Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks have yet to take the floor together this postseason.  Of the 2,015 minutes Hayward played during the regular season, he was only paired with Burks for 339 (16.8%) of them.
• Take: This series – like Miami-New York before and despite yesterday’s Knicks win – is over for all intents and purposes, so focusing on a particular aspect of the matchup between the Spurs and Jazz seems counterproductive.  Even if Utah is willed by a sure-to-be raucous crowd to a game 4 win, the inevitable San Antonio close-out victory will still come.  So, how can the young Jazz fare better next season? They can start by abandoning allegiance to the aging/unproductive wing triumvirate of Josh Howard, Raja Bell, and DeMarre Carroll and starting the young duo of Hayward and Burks alongside whatever upgrade they hopefully make at point guard in the offseason.  For reasons unknown coach Ty Corbin was extremely averse to playing the two recent first rounders alongside one another this season, and despite the dismal play of Howard and Carroll  thus far against San Antonio, Hayward/Burks hasn’t been given a chance at all in the playoffs.  And, in either case, why not? That’s something only Corbin knows, as whatever deficiencies and/or redundancies created by the Hayward/Burks tandem is equalled or even worsened by the combination of Hayward and Howard/Bell/Carroll.  None of the five has been an accurate shooter from deep this season (though Hayward closed the year on a tear) and at this point in their careers all are similarly challenged as defenders.  The only tandem with upside, clearly, and the only one Utah has mortgaged its future on is the one that saw the least amount of floor-time together.  Again, why? The Jazz perimeter was the team’s weakness all year, and taking a legitimate chance on the green Burks – no matter how lost or ineffective he could have been – and by proxy pushing the calendar forward in all likelihood would not have rendered Utah’s battle for the postseason lost.  Even better, maybe it could have propelled them another place or two higher so they could have avoided the West’s top seed.  Obviously, none of this matters now.  The Jazz will have to find out whether or not Hayward or Burks can coexist next season, and for their and the team’s sake let’s hope it’s sooner rather than later.

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (10:30ET on TNT): Clippers lead series 2-1

Apr 29, 2012; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) drives to the basket during the first half of game one in the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs against the Los Angeles Clippers at FedEx Forum. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: In Memphis’ 87-86 loss on Saturday, Marc Gasol went 3-5 from the field, 5-5 from the free throw line, and scored 10 points in 35 minutes.  He’s averaging 7.9 attempts per 36 minutes in the series thus far, seventh most on the team.
• Take: It’s ridiculous for a player as productive and efficient as Gasol to take only five field goal attempts in any game, and it’s especially bad considering the momentous stakes on Saturday.  He’s hardly been given more opportunity in the other games of this series, either, taking just 10 and nine shots in games 1 and 2.  While it’s true Gasol didn’t enjoy his usual success against DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers in the regular season, putting the ball in his hands and urging him to be aggressive – either making plays for himself or his teammates – is surely a better option for the Grizzlies than chucking long twos and threes.  They took 42 shots from beyond sixteen feet in game 3 and made 15 of them,  good for just 35.7%.  Of course, it’s hardly as simple as “Give Marc the ball and watch the offense improve.”  The newly added presence of Randolph operating on the low block and extended area pushes Gasol to legitimate mid-range, and while he’s a very solid mid-range shooter his array of talents are best utilized in the pinch post within twelve feet of the basket.  Additionally, Los Angeles has been defending Gasol aggressively, limiting passing angles and forcing him to put the ball on the floor, the area in his game most lacking.  Still, there are adjustments that the Grizzlies can make, most simply and easily making Gasol the focal point of their attack early and often and forcing the Clippers to adjust from there.  Don’t be surprised if Lionel Hollins goes that route and reacts accordingly tonight, as he’s likely – and correctly, frankly – fed up with Memphis’ new identity as a band of jump-shooters.

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May 6, 2012; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) shoots a free throw against the Miami Heat during the second half of game four in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Knicks won 89-87. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Carmelo Anthony led the Knicks with 41 big points, including a huge 3-pointer to break a tie with just 54.5 seconds left in regulation. Melo was one point shy of his personal playoff best, but you could argue that today was the best playoff performance of his career. With so much turmoil surrounding the game and the two teams involved, Anthony rose to the occasion and connected on 15 of his 29 field goal attempts and ensured his team would live to fight another day.

Amar’e Stoudemire returned from his infamous fire extinguisher injury to give New York a huge lift. He scored 20 points and grabbed 10 boards while playing with protective padding over his hand. He returned just in time to watch as another teammate was lost to injury. Baron Davis (Davis injured? That’s unheard of, right?) left the court on a stretcher in the third quarter after dislocating his right knee.

The Miami Heat seemed well on their way to completing their sweep of these Knicks for much of the game on Sunday. Lebron James was his usual MVP-caliber self, scoring 27 points to lead his heavily favored team. Dwayne Wade added 22 points, but I can guarantee he is thinking of nothing else besides the 3-point jump shot he missed with 1.6 seconds left that would have won the game for the visiting Heat, thus completing their four game sweep. Had that shot gone in, not only would it have given the Heat the series win, but it would have also netted them a nice, long break before they begin their second series. Instead, they will have to try and close out this series yet again on wednesday.

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May 1, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers point guard Jrue Holiday (11) and power forward Elton Brand (42) bring the ball up court against Chicago Bulls point guard C.J. Watson (7) during the second half of game two in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the United Center. The 76ers beat the Bulls 109-92. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Holiday, the Sixers starting guard, went off in Game 2 as his squad took the game’s final score 109-92. This was no surprise to me whatsoever. As noted in my debut column for StS, I referenced Holiday’s importance with the Bulls’ Derrick Rose out with a torn ACL for the series going forward. I casually prophesied Jrue having a huge game. He did just that.

Jrue capped the night off with a sickening 11 for 15 shooting night that netted 26 points. (Drastically improving from his Game 1 score of 16 shooting under 50 percent from the field.)

However, Holiday wasn’t the only big story line of Game 2. Philly’s leading scorer, Lou Williams, erupted for 20 points off the bench in only 27 minutes of floor-time. Evan Turner, the 6’7″ versatile guard, also put up good numbers for the guys in red and blue. Evan totaled up 7 boards, 6 assists and 19 points to go along with his fairly solid +/- rate of +13 – which was only second on his team to Andre “Iggy” Iguodala. Iggy didn’t particularly have the game he’s capable of. The All-Star must elevate his game in order for the 76ers to take a lead in this series.

Chicago’s Joakim Noah had a good night with 21 points and 8 boards. Meanwhile, John Lucas showed promise off the bench as a spark-plug for the Bulls with seven made buckets to give him 15 points. (Sadly, that’s all I have to say about Chicago other than they need D-Rose, pronto.)

Now that this 1-8 Eastern conference match-up is on the location-swing, what must each team do to take a pivotal 2-1 series lead – as it is currently tied 1-1 – that could help decide the series?

On Philadelphia’s behalf they need to continue to run everything they do through Jrue Holiday. Holiday’s size and athleticsm is a real problem for the Bulls, as they have no one else that can guard him but D-Rose. (Derrick couldn’t guard anyone but my 78-year-old grandma at this point.) Yes, the Bulls have a great defensive stopper in Ronnie Brewer. But, Brewer is a little too pre-occupied with the likes of Philly’s Iggy and Evan Turner – both are great all-around players that are bigger than usual for their position.

Another thing Philly needs to do is to continue to develop their frontcourt as no one besides Elton Brand has proven to be any sort of factor. Lavoy Allen, the 76ers rookie big man, did play well in Game 2, but he needs to hold onto the groove in order to stick with Noah and Boozer. The Sixers also need to be more lenient with Jodie Meeks. The 6’4″, 210 pound shooting guard from Kentucky can flat-out score. In the playoffs, teams typically stick with an eight-man rotation. Meeks is currently ninth on the depth chart, therefore he only logged one minute of playing time in Game 2. His shooting/scoring ability can be yet another headache for the Black Shoes and Black Socks band.

May 1, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) warms up before game two in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals against the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the United Center of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

For Chicago going forward, look up about a paragraph and a half and you will see my point made clear. THEY NEED DERRICK ROSE. They were able to skate by in the regular season without Rose with an 18-9 record – not bad, but hardly championship worthy.

The Bulls are seeing good things from Noah and Lucas as noted but need more from Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer and Rip Hamilton.

Chicago’s inability to make free throws in Game 2 severely hurt them.

Well… Think. If they would have made a realistic 16 out of 18 from the charity stripe rather than 10 for 18, we may have a game on our hands.

Free throws are a little but big thing, all ya gotta do is make it. It’s just you and the hoop. If the Bulls can’t take advantage of that then they can kiss this series goodbye and Philly will soar with flying colors.

Predictions in short:

Game 3 Score: 102-94, Philadelphia.

Look for this game to be hard-fought and competitive. Expect big numbers from the likes of Philly’s Holiday, Williams, Turner, and Brand. (With a hopeful bounce-back effort for Iggy.)

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Well, so much for Boston missing two of its best players.

In a playoff game without Ray Allen (ankle) and Rajon Rondo (served a one-game suspension), Paul Pierce and the Celtics found a way to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 2.  Other than Celtics enthusiast Scott Duhaime, I don’t’ think anybody else saw this coming.

In my Game 2 Preview, I mentioned that Pierce would have to go for 30+ if the Celtics were to win without two of their stars.  What I didn’t expect is that we would see retro Pierce, exploding for 36 points and 14 rebounds, and even pulling a Tim Tebow at mid-court during his 4^th quarter heroics for good measure.  The end result? Pierce carrying the Celtics to a victory.

How concerned should Atlanta be?

If Josh Smith’s knee injury is serious, I would say the Hawks are at a 9 out of 10 on the panic meter.   He is the clear-cut matchup advantage the Hawks have over Boston, and the biggest culprit behind their Game 1 victory.  Before his injury, he was having a decent game with 16 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists, and the Hawks were only down two at the time.

Beyond Smith, the Hawks had trouble getting into the same offensive groove they had in Game 1, thanks to a huge improvement in defensive intensity from the Celtics.  With the two stars – Smith and Joe Johnson – struggling with their shooting and going 15-38 from the floor, the lack of production from the bench proved to be a huge letdown for Atlanta.  Marvin Williams, in particular, contributed virtually nothing – scoring 3 points on 1-6 shooting in a very ineffective 21 minutes.  Considering the bench played so poorly despite being at home, asking them to step up their play in Boston is a tall order.

What to expect in Game 3

The Hawks squandered a great opportunity to take a 2-0 series lead prior to heading to Boston for Games 3 and 4 without Rondo and Allen on the floor.  Boston has been nearly unbeatable at home during the playoffs since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived in Boston in 2007-08, which epitomizes why the Hawks’ home court advantage was so crucial.  And thanks to their loss of Game 2, and potentially Josh Smith, losing home court may prove to be the crushing blow to their hopes of advancing.  Barring a miraculous healing of J-Smoove’s knee (we haven’t exactly seen such miracles in this year’s playoffs so far), Boston should win Game 3 in convincing fashion.

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After the conclusion of last year’s Mavs-Thunder series – where the Mavericks dispensed the Thunder with relative ease in five games – Russell Westbrook pulled a LeBron and stormed off the court without exchanging handshakes with the Mavericks players and coaches.  Afterwards, he was heavily criticized not just for his lack of sportsmanship at the moment, but also his play.  His shot selection and apparent reluctance to let Kevin Durant be the go-to scorer was much maligned – even up to this day.   Subsequently, many were persistently questioning the ability of Westbrook to coexist with Durant.

In this year’s playoffs, it appears that questioning has halted – at least for the moment.  While Kevin Durant has struggled with his jump shot over the first two games – albeit lifting the Thunder in the waning seconds of Game 1 – it was his co-pilot Westbrook who led the charge this time around with 29 points and leading the Thunder to a Game 2 victory.  In these last two games, he’s been the steady scorer that OKC expects Durant to be.  With Dallas having only Jason Kidd – who has 17 years worth of mileage on his legs – and Roddy Beaubois –who has yet to provide the same spark as a backup point guard as JJ Barea used to – to guard him, Westbrook is the single worst matchup for the Mavericks.  A huge reason why Kevin Durant is struggling to find a rhythm is because Rick Carlisle has Shawn Marion to make Durant’s life difficult.  But they have no such answer for Westbrook, and they should take full advantage of that.

Still, the game was very much within reach for Dallas.  Had Dirk Nowitzki not missed a WIDE open three-pointer (which I’m quite shocked that he missed) and a 12-foot fadeaway in the closing minutes, the series could very well be tied.

Should Dallas be worried?

Yes.  For the second straight game, Dallas threatened to steal home court advantage from the Thunder.  But also for the second straight game, they failed to execute down the stretch.  One has to believe that Dirk will not keep missing clutch shots – particularly in Dallas over the next two games.  But they should also be worried about their lack of production from their bench.  Roddy Beaubois and Brandan Wright did not see much time on the floor (5 minutes each), chiefly due to their overall nervous play so far.  Vince Carter has logged 30+ minutes in each of the first two games, but only scored 5 points on 2-9 shooting and only attempted 2 free throws.  He did have some nice moments in these first two games, but for a guy of Carter’s caliber (and with plenty of playoff experience), he needs to play better.

What to expect in Game 3

If you’re Dallas, you have to take some positives from losing two road games by only a combined four points against a heavily favored team.  Quite reasonably, this series could easily be 2-0 in favor of Dallas.  Still, their inability to execute in crunch time in two straight close games is troubling.

If you’re OKC, you’re hoping that KD finds his shot again.  If not, you have to ride Westbrook and let him be “The Man” again, despite seemingly everyone’s preconceived notion that he shouldn’t be more than a second fiddle.

I may be just desperately clinging on to my pre-series prediction at this point, but I just can’t see Dallas going away this easily.  Being at home, I think one of Dallas’s role players – who, outside of Jason Terry, have been fairly nonexistent up to this point – will put his imprint on the series.  I also don’t think Dirk – a proven playoff performer – can choke in three straight games when the game is close.  Therefore, without feeling comfortable with the prediction at all, I say Dallas wins Game 3 fairly handily.

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Well, worry no more Indiana.

Granger found his stroke in Game 3, leading the way for the Pacers with 26 points on 9-for-16 shooting from the field (including five three pointers). Indiana easily took Game 3 with a 97-74 victory over the Orlando Magic. The win gives Indiana a 2-1 series advantage.

Box Score

Quick recap: Granger came out hot early, scoring eight of the Pacers first 18 points, after shooting just 14-for-41 from the field in the first two games.  Behind Granger, Indiana took a 23-14 first quarter lead and never looked back. The Magic cut the lead to three in the second quarter, but were never able to get any closer. The Pacers used a 32-17 third quarter to pull away for good.

What it means for Orlando: This is exactly what could not happen for Orlando. The Magic have been blown out in back-to-back games and that Game 1 win now seems like a distant memory. Game 4 is an absolute must-win.

Despite Orlando’s struggles, the play of Glen Davis can not be ignored. He’s playing out of position and has to battle against a great defensive center in Roy Hibbert on every play, and still managed to score 22 points on 10-for-18 shooting. If only some of his teammates could score.

The other player covered in my Game 3 preview, Ryan Anderson, struggled yet again. In Game 3 he only attempted six shots and finished with seven points. For Orlando to get back into this series, they are going to need a big game from Anderson.

Seven. That’s how many fast break points Orlando has in this series. They aren’t the most athletic team in the league, but they need to push the pace and score before Indiana’s big men can set up defensively. This can’t be stressed enough.

What it means for Indiana: And just like that, the Pacers reclaimed home-court advantage.

Outside of Granger, the Pacers also received a very efficient night from Hibbert, who scored 18 points on 8-10 shooting from the field, while also pulling down 10 rebounds. It’s good to see Hibbert finally take advantage of these smaller Orlando defenders.

Where is the bench? This was supposed to be a strength for this team but the bench struggled again tonight, shooting just 6-17 from the field. Indiana can survive with those type of numbers against this Orlando team, but in a round two matchup likely against the Miami Heat? Good luck.

It seems Indiana might have sucked the life out of Orlando. A win in Game 4 will essentially clinch the series. It will be interesting to see how this young team comes out to start the game. Given the wave of momentum they are now riding, my guess is that they will come out strong.

Indiana Pacers–Orlando Magic: Granger Steps Up In Game 3 Victory - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Apr 26, 2012; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard O.J. Mayo (32) shoots a free throw during the second half against the Orlando Magic at the FedEx Forum. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE

• This obviously told a tale of two games in the first meeting of this series.  Memphis dominated the game 1′s first 40 minutes on the strength of scorching shooting from deep – the normally streaky Grizzlies were 11-16 from three and Mike Conley was a perfect 5-5.  But that was all before the historic and game-ending 28-3 run by Los Angeles.  The Clippers, meanwhile, were just 2-13 from long-range before connecting on four bombs in the span of 5:43 left on the clock to 1:47.  Just like that, what was a 95-82 Grizz lead was cut to three after a trio of successive treys by Nick Young.  Neither of these teams was particularly accurate or prolific from three-point range during the season, so don’t expect similar fireworks from either in game 2.  Regardless, whichever team accounts for more hidden points from deep should have a net plus that will be tough to overcome.

Offensive Rebounding

• Memphis and LAC ranked third and fourth in offensive rebound rate during the regular season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them pull down 14 and 13 of their own misses, respectively.  The Clippers didn’t have a single outlier; no player grabbed more than DeAndre Jordan’s three offensive rebounds, and the two each by Blake Griffin and Reggie Evans were followed up by several of their teammates getting one of their own.  That wasn’t the case for the Grizzlies, though, as Marreese Speights – an average rebounder during the regular season and poor one throughout his career – corralled six of Memphis’ 14 offensive rebounds all by his lonesome in just 18 minutes of play.  Obviously, the Clipper bigs need to do a better job of locating and putting a body on Speights, but to expect him to gather even half of his game 1 total is wishful thinking.  Considering the somewhat flukey nature of Memphis’ prowess on the offensive glass on Sunday one suspects this is an area LAC could take advantage of in game 2.

Memphis Shot Locations

Apr 29, 2012; Memphis, TN, USA; Los Angeles Clippers power forward Blake Griffin (32) has his dunk attempt blocked by Memphis Grizzlies center Marreese Speights (5) during the second half of game one in the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at FedEx Forum. The Clippers won 99-98. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE

• The Grizzlies shot a respectable 44.8% in game 1, and it took some truly awful accuracy down the stretch to bring that number down.  It was obvious to anyone watching the game that Memphis’ hot start from mid and long range was unsustainable, and it proved to be just that.  But that didn’t stop the Grizz from hoisting up jumper after jumper in the second half.  Their shot selection was especially egregious during Los Angeles’ run, as eight of Memphis’ 13 missed attempts were shots from outside of ten feet.  Remember, this is a team that almost rode the overwhelmingly strong interior play of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol all the way t0 the Western Conference Finals last season, but that identity was nowhere to be found on Sunday.  Granted, they were on fire early, but when the game settled down Lionel Hollins would have been wise to tell Conley, Rudy Gay, and OJ Mayo to force touches to Gasol and the still-recovering Randolph in the post.  Whether or not they change it up and start inside-out tonight will be huge in establishing the comfort and flow of the Memphis bigs in game 2.

Los Angeles Playing Rotation

Apr 29, 2012; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) dribbles the ball up the court against Los Angeles Clippers power forward Reggie Evans (30) during the second half of game one in the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at FedEx Forum. The Clippers won 99-98. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE

• The fab five that won Sunday’s game for Vinny Del Negro was the barely-used Chris Paul/Eric Bledsoe/Nick Young/Blake Griffin/Reggie Evans unit.  In this morning’s Playoff Stats of the Day, we chronicled how important Bledsoe is to LAC as a change of pace off the bench, and after his performance in game 1 he should see increased minutes going forward.  Young will get the start tonight in place of the injured Caron Butler to provide much needed floor-spacing, and will likely need to play a much bigger role on both ends of the floor than he’s used to.  What will be most interesting, though, is when or if Del Negro decides to go back to that fateful five.  DeAndre Jordan offers size and shot-blocking that Evans can’t, but isn’t close to as smart or instinctive a defender as Evans against pick and rolls.  Ditto for Kenyon Martin, who at this point and in this series, at least, should take a firm backseat to Evans as the Clips third big.  The lineup that won game 1 is certainly unconventional.  But it offers speed with Bledsoe and Young, defense and aggression with Bledsoe and Evans, and a clear offensive pecking order in which everyone knows his role.  Plus, there’s that whole thing where the mostly ineffective Evans and sometimes so Bledsoe forces Paul to play like his fourth quarter, assassin self, something LAC would undoubtedly like to see more.  Los Angeles shouldn’t over do it, but if they’re in a tough spot looking to get out of a rut, don’t be shocked if Del Negro tries his hand with these guys again to great success.

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On the exterior, Granger’s numbers don’t look so bad. He’s combined for 35 points and 15 rebounds in two games. But you look a little deeper and you see that Granger is shooting well.

At all.

In two games, Granger has taken 41 shots from the field and has only made 14 of them. That’s an abysmal 34%. To make matters worse, he’s only hit on 21% of his three pointers and 57% of his free throws. Yes, this is a small sample size to work with but are you telling me that Danny Granger can’t have his way with Hedo Turkoglu defending him? Come on.

Look, the Pacers ranked second to last in the league with 18.6 assists per game. The fact that they were still able to average almost 98 points a game shows that they were able to get good production from their one-on-one players. If Danny Granger’s shooting woes continue, it’s going to hurt the Pacers at some point if he’s shooting 20 times a game.

So how does he get out of the slump? He needs to drive to the rim more. The Magic have nobody inside to stop him and he should be able to blow by Turkoglu at will. The worst case scenario is he gets fouled and goes to the line (which could help him find his rhythm). Look fro Granger to drive more in Games 3 and 4 instead of settling for the outside shot (he attempted 10 threes in Game 2).

Ryan Anderson, on the other hand, needs to start shooting more. There’s a reason that Anderson led the league in three pointers made this season: He’s good at them.  But after averaging more than 12 field goals per game in the regular season, Anderson has only attempted 16 shots in the first two games combined. With Dwight Howard out of the picture, there is no reason that Anderson shouldn’t be averaging 15 shots a game. I would imagine that Stan Van Gundy will look to draw up more plays to get more shots for his talented power forward. If Anderson catches fire, he can completely swing a game or two.

Will he be able to swing Game 3? We will have to wait and find out.

Prediction: Orlando 90, Indiana 86

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March 12, 2012; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz small forward Josh Howard (8) looks to pass while defended by Detroit Pistons small forward Tayshaun Prince (22) during the second half at Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz defeated the Pistons 105-90. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: In Sunday’s loss to San Antonio, Josh Howard went 0-7 from the field, was held scoreless in sixteen minutes of playing time, and had a net point differential of -14.6.
• Take: That Howard struggled so mightily against the Spurs on Sunday should not have been surprising.  He missed the last month of the regular season before coming back for its final two games, playing just six minutes in the one-game playoff against the Suns before logging 25 in a meaningless win in Portland.  For all intents and purposes, he hadn’t seen regular court time in anything but a glorified scrimmage since mid-March, making Ty Corbin’s decision to start him in the postseason opener even more perplexing.  Howard, a poor outside shooter at this point in his career and hardly the slasher or defender he used to be either, played into San Antonio’s hands by taking two long jumpers on offense and serving as little more than flotsam on either end of the floor.  Bearing this miniscule sample size in mind, Corbin would be best served starting DeMarre Carroll at small forward and using active rookie Alec Burks as his primary perimeter backup.  The former offers size and defense Howard can’t while recognizing his limitations on offense, while the latter brings much needed tempo and aggression to a Jazz attack that rarely scores in transition.  Howard was hardly Utah’s only problem Sunday, but his presence in the starting lineup and rotation posed issues on both ends of the floor that the Jazz could potentially eradicate by giving the lion’s share of his time to Carroll and Burks.

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic (7:30ET on NBATV): Series tied 1-1

Apr 28, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers shooting guard George Hill (3) dribbles the ball against Orlando Magic shooting guard Jason Richardson (23) during game one in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Orlando defeated Indiana 81-77. Mandatory Credit: Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: In Monday’s 93-78 win over Orlando, the Indiana Pacers assisted on nine of their 33 field goals.  Their assist percentage of 27.3 was barely half their season-long average of 52.2%.
• Take: The Pacers fixed their finishing woes in game 2 by shooting 72.8% at the rim, a key change that we chronicled on Monday.  And their offense, unsurprisingly, thrived as a result.  Indy’s 106.9 offensive rating on Monday night was better than 20 points higher than their Saturday mark, a feat having to do with their newfound accuracy at the rim as much as their proficiency in getting to the free throw line.  The Pacers shot 28 free throws Monday (making 25) for a free throw rate of 36.4, an impressive number not much higher than their regular season average.  So perhaps Indiana’s shockingly low assist rate was affected by Orlando fouls, but such wouldn’t normally account for such a stark decline in assists.  All this goes to say is that the Pacers should be careful if they want to win relying on this style of offense again tonight.  Free throw rate and one-on-one scoring are notoriously fickle on a game to game basis, a fact they’d have to worry about less by getting a few more easy baskets out of offensive sets that yield assists.

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (9:30ET on TNT): Clippers lead series 1-0

Apr 9, 2012; Memphis, TN, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Eric Bledsoe (12) dribbles the ball up the court during the second half against the Memphis Grizzlies at the FedEx Forum. Memphis Grizzlies defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 94-85. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: LA’s Chris Paul/Eric Bledsoe backcourt combination played just 78 minutes together in the regular season, but posted an impressive plus/minus per 36 minutes of +10.9 that was the best mark on the team.  The two also posted a mind-boggling +/- of +79.2 in game 1.
• Take: The Clippers made their epic comeback run on Monday with the little-used on-floor quintet of Paul/Bledsoe/Nick Young/Blake Griffin/Reggie Evans.  While Young provided the fireworks with three treys in succession to cut a twelve point to lead to three and Evans has been universally lauded for his pick and roll defense and rebounding, little has been made of Bledsoe’s sizable impact.  It should be noted that Bledsoe didn’t play until the beginning of the game-deciding run and was on the floor until the clock struck zero.  So what was the defining and ever-present aspect of this Clippers comeback? Pace.  Lots of pace that the Clippers didn’t play with for the game’s first three quarters.  And that has to do with Bledsoe.  Not unlike Boston’s Avery Bradley, Bledsoe is known as a raw guard with little distribution or shot-making skill but elite athleticism and defensive ability.  On the surface that wouldn’t seem to fit with a player like Paul, but Bledsoe’s presence on the floor often forces LA’s uptempo-averse leading man to get out on the fastbreak where he, Bledsoe, Griffin, and a sharpshooting athlete like Young are deadly.  Go back and watch the run; Bledsoe’s defensive pressure, incisive offensive spacing, and ability to run the floor changed the game for the Clippers.  LA doesn’t have the size, skill, or discipline to slow things down with the Grizz in the halfcourt.  Bledsoe helps curb Paul’s natural tendency to play that way, and the 15-20 minutes the second-year guard will hopefully get from this point on will be huge in determining the winner of this series.

Playoff Stats of the Day (5/2): Josh Howard, Indy’s Unsustainable Offense, and the Eric Bledsoe Effect - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Apr 30, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) reacts next to New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) during the second half of game two in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

These New York Knicks were hell bent on proving to the world that they are not a team that’s going to be decimated by 33 points routinely, and that’s exactly what they did. They brought more energy and determination onto the court and proved that if Miami wants to beat them they are going to have to beat them by 10 points; no more 30+ point laughers. Way to go, boys.

The Miami Heat continued their hot play this post-season as they took everything New York threw at them before finishing them off en route to a 104-94 victory. Dwayne Wade led the Heat with 25 points, while Chris Bosh and Lebron James contributed 21 and 19 points respectively. James made sure to fill other areas of his stat-line, too, grabbing seven rebounds and dishing out nine assists.

Despite the deflating loss, the Knicks showed some guts in their effort this time around. Carmelo Anthony responded to the criticism of his lackluster game 1 performance by racking up a game high 30 points. Tyson Chandler added 13 points and 7 boards, 6 of those actually came on the offensive end of the court. It was nice to see Baron Davis enjoy a solid performance of his own with 12 points and 6 assists. Of course we cannot forget the man of the hour himself, Amar’e Stoudemire. He definitely left his imprint on this game – as well as the now-infamous hallway fire extinguisher – by chipping in 18 points and pulling down 7 boards. His biggest play of the night won’t show up in any stat sheet though, I’ll get to that in a minute.

New York did a commendable job of responding every time Miami attempted to shift gears and pull away from them. The Knicks stayed more or less within striking distance for the better part of three quarters, but a barrage of Lebron James directed offensive firepower to close out the third period would prove to be the proverbial dagger. The Heat led 78-69 at the opening of the fourth period. The Knicks would never get any closer than that.

The Heat did what they were supposed to do as time expired and their 104-94 victory became official. The teams went through their post game motions before heading back to their respective locker rooms just like any other game. This story should have ended already but oddly enough, it was far from over. Leave it to the boys from Broadway to dazzle us with a flair for the dramatics.

By now I am sure you have heard the details of this strange development over and over again, so I won’t delve too deep into them. As Amar’e Stoudemire made his way back to the visitors locker room of the American Airlines Arena he apparently had some sort of altercation with a fire extinguisher. He reportedly punched the fire extinguisher and suffered a laceration on his hand as a result. This injury is rumored to be serious enough to keep him out of game 3.

Apr 30, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; New York Knicks power forward Amare Stoudemire (1) reacts during the first half of game two in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs against the Miami Heat at the American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Much is being made of Stoudemire’s selfishness and how it may have very well cost The Knicks their season. Normally I wouldn’t see a purpose in dignifying such absurd statements with a response, but I am in a jolly mood so I will state the obvious for anyone who needs assistance. If you want to get down and dirty into it, you can dig up the statistics that suggest the Knicks perform better without Amar’e and you can try to make sense of how and why that is. If you don’t like wasting time and energy on pointless drivel then I wouldn’t suggest that method. Instead, just turn to my good friend, logic. The Knicks were annihilated by 33 points in game 1. Then they put up an admirable fight and still lost by double digits. If you think the absence of Stoudemire for a single game is what will keep the Knicks from making a series of this then I would strongly suggest you make an appointment to have your head examined.

If you are a Knicks fan and you are looking for a positive to take away from this game, I think I can help you out. When was the last time Amar’e attacked the glass like that? I got jokes. It appears the entire internet does too though. What kind of dramatics await us in game 3? We will find out May 3rd on TNT.

Miami Heat 104 New York Knicks 94: Knicks Down 0-2 After Failing to Extinguish Heat - Saving the Skyhook - Saving the Skyhook - A General NBA Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Mar 19, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo (9) shoots the ball as Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague (0) and power forward Josh Smith (5) defend during the second half at Philips Arena. Boston won 79-76. Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

What was the difference in Game 1?

The Hawks used their athleticism to their advantage from the get-go.  The star of the game, Josh Smith – who I still can’t understand why was left off the All-Star team this year – stuffed the stat sheet with 22 points, 18 rebounds, 4 assists and a block.  He also did a great job containing Kevin Garnett in the early going, as Garnett started off 1-9 from the field.  The Hawks’ unsung hero was Kirk Hinrich, who hit some early 3’s to help the Hawks jump out to an early lead.  Atlanta is heavily depleted in the front court without Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia, but Boston still does not have a distinct size advantage.  Both Paul Pierce (5-19) and Joe Johnson (3-15) struggled from the floor, resulting in a contest between both star players’ respective supporting casts.  In that scenario, all you can say is Advantage:  Hawks.

Most of the game was lopsided in Atlanta’s favor, but it got close after Boston rallied late all the way up to Rondo’s bumping of official Marc Davis that led to his ejection and eventual suspension.  In defense of Rondo, Davis did make two consecutive atrocious calls against Boston:  first, incorrectly giving the Hawks the ball when Josh Smith clearly hit it out-of-bounds, and then the foul call on the Celtics that directly led to Rondo’s outburst.  If not for those two bad calls, the Celtics may very well have succeeded in their comeback attempt.   Nonetheless, the Celtics will be without their star point guard in the next game at Atlanta.

What should we expect in Game 2?

Apr 29, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks power forward Josh Smith (5) scores a basket past Boston Celtics power forward Kevin Garnett (5) and power forward Brandon Bass (30) during the first half of game one in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-US PRESSWIRE

If Boston wants to steal a road win, Paul Pierce needs to come alive and score 30+ points – especially without Rondo on the floor.  He even admitted

that he “was a really big culprit” for losing Game 1.  We know Rondo will be absent, but it remains to be seen whether Celtics guard Ray Allen will play.  His ankle injury seems to be more serious than originally reported as he was expected back in the lineup before the playoffs began.  He said the injury is something he definitely needs to get surgery for in the offseason, and is only delaying the surgery to avoid being shelved for the playoffs.  As if it wasn’t predictable, Boston sure misses his three-point shooting; they were 0-11 from beyond the arc in Game 1.

As for Atlanta, they need to continue utilizing Smith’s superior athleticism against Boston’s slow and aging roster.  If they can jump out to an early lead the same way as they did in the opening minutes of Game 1, they should be in great shape.  Also, without Rondo on the floor being a pest on defense, things should really open up for Jeff Teague and Hinrich.  Given all the advantages Atlanta has, this is a must-win game for them.  And I expect that Larry Drew will convey that to his team.

In the end, the cards are stacked against Boston.  Playing without Allen is one thing, but winning without your multi-dimensional floor general is a much taller order.  Hawks should cruise to a 2-0 series lead.

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Dec 16, 2010; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics forward Paul Pierce (34) reacts to a call on the floor during the first half against the Atlanta Hawks at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: With Rajon Rondo on the bench compared to when he’s on the floor, Boston’s offensive efficiency drops from 101.5 to 94.4.
• Take: Rondo is unquestionably the straw that stirs the drink for Boston’s at-best mediocre offense, and when he’s on the bench the Celtics’ 94.4 offensive rating would rank only above the lowly Bobcats over the full regular season.  Of course, there’s a major difference between Rondo taking a breather and not being available to play at all.  The Celtics, no doubt, will look much different offensively tonight than they have all season long without the services of Rondo and Ray Allen.  Paul Pierce will handle much of the playmaking and ballhandling duties, a task he’s been up to in the past without Boston’s mercurial leading man by his side – he averages 4.3 more assists per 36 minutes when playing as a de-facto point guard.  But Pierce needs to act as a scorer for the Celtics first and foremost, which is why it will be interesting to see how Doc Rivers doles out minutes to Avery Bradley and Keyon Dooling.  Each is obviously more of a combo guard, but the latter appears more comfortable than the young Bradley initiating sets and getting a team into its offense.  Regardless, it will take extra big individual nights from Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and an ancillary piece or two for Boston to come away with an unlikely win and even this series at 1-1.

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls (8:00ET on TNT): Bulls lead series 1-0

Apr 28, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia 76ers point guard Jrue Holiday (11) is defended by Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose (1) during the third quarter in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the United Center. The Bulls won 103-91. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE

• Stat: Jrue Holiday’s scoring average per 36 minutes against Chicago with Derrick Rose on the court is 17.0.  When Rose is inactive or on the bench, that number jumps to 24.0 points per 36 minutes.
• Take: Team-wise, the advanced statistics paint a much Rose-ier (pun!) picture for Chicago in this series without the reigning MVP than public perception would indicate.  The Bulls actually outscored the Sixers in the regular season by 2.7 points per 48 minutes when Rose was not playing; conversely, Philly was +3.9 against Chicago with Rose on the floor.  That sample size needs to be taken with a grain of salt, obviously, but in terms of getting out of the first round all is clearly not lost for the East’s top seed.  But what does Rose’s absence mean for Philly? The Sixers fared far better in efficiency on both ends of the floor with Rose playing, but – offensively, at least – none of that had to do with Holiday. The young point guard becomes ultra-aggressive matched up against CJ Watson or John Lucas III, and rightfully so; he’s a got a significant size, strength, and athleticism advantage over each Chicago reserve.  Holiday struggled his way to 16 points on 7-18 shooting Saturday matched up with Rose, so considering that performance and the regular season’s results look for him to have a big night.  Whether he helps lead Philly to a win against the Rose-less Bulls, though, is a different story.

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Box Score

Quick Recap: Orlando led by two at the half, but Indiana used a 30-13 third quarter to take control of the game. The Magic were never able to cut the lead to single digits in the fourth quarter as Indiana cruised to victory.

What it means for Orlando: Taking a two game lead back home would have been huge for the Magic, who are still seen as underdogs in this series despite winning Game 1. Still, going back home with a one-one split is better than most people expected from this team.

If we learned anything from these first two games about the Magic, it’s that they will need Jameer Nelson to play at his best for Orlando to have a chance in this series. He played well in Game 1, but struggled in Game 2 (4-for-13 from the field, just three assists). The Magic are at their best when Nelson is playing well.

Glen Davis now has 13 offensive rebounds in the first two games. His ability to keep possessions alive and create opportunities for second chance points can keep the Magic in this series.

Ryan Anderson needs to step up. He averaged over 16 points per game this season, but only has 16 points in the first two games combined. He’s not shooting as much as he did in the regular season, but the Magic need him to.

What it means for Indiana: This was a must win game for the Pacers, and they responded so.

As I pointed out in my Game 2 preview, Indiana was reluctant to go to David West in the second half of Game 1 despite his first half success. Well, West struggled with his shot in Game 2 (5-for-14 from the field), but took advantage of Orlando’s weak interior defense and was able to get to the line consistently. West finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds, and there is no reason that the Pacers should stop going to him in this series.

Danny Granger’s struggles are a bit of a concern. He only shot 7-for-21 from the field (1-for-10 from three), and as the assumed best player on the team, Indiana will need more from him going forward.

It has to be encouraging to see a good shooting night from Paul George (7-for-10 from the field) after he struggled with his shot in Game 1. Being only 21 years-old and playing in a playoff atmosphere might have rattled him Saturday, but the fact that he was able to rebound nicely in Game 2 is a good sign for Indiana.

The Pacers did a good job taking care of the basketball in Game 2 (only 11 turnovers). This is key because it prevents Orlando from hitting the open court and allows for Indiana’s big men to set up defensively.

Game 3 will be played Wednesday night in Orlando and could serve as the pivotal game in the series. Check back tomorrow for the preview.

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