May 27, 2013; Memphis, TN, USA; San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich (middle) talks with his team in the second half of game four of the Western Conference finals of the 2013 NBA Playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedEx Forum. The Spurs won 93-86. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

As most of the sports world predicted, the Miami Heat have found their way back to the NBA Finals for the third straight year.  And this year, they are projected by many to repeat as NBA Champions.   Many acknowledge that the Spurs have the assets that play directly into Miami’s weaknesses.  However, very few are confident that Miami can lose four games to this team.

Consider me part of the minority.  Barring a major injury, the Spurs should be favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy this month.  And I will give you three main reasons why:

1)       The Spurs are really, really, really underappreciated and underrated.

This is not the first time people have glossed over the Spurs this season – or the last several seasons, for that matter.  It seems that every preseason, several so-called “experts” predict that the Spurs would lose their status as a perennial contender.  But GM RC Buford and Coach Gregg Popovich have done an absolutely masterful job of building around their Big 3 of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili.  Each year they reload their lineup and rotations admirably, and each year they maintain their status as one of the league’s elite.  It has been a long six years since they were last in an NBA Finals – which just so happened to be against LeBron James in a Cleveland jersey.  Back then, Parker was an up-and-coming 25 year old that absolutely TORCHED that Cavs team.  Now, he has blossomed into arguably the best point guard in the league today.  Granted LeBron has gotten a little better, too, as he pointed out himself.  Nevertheless, the Spurs know their window as a title contender is closing, and are not taking this Finals trip for granted.

The Spurs’ relentless offensive execution has worn teams out for well over a decade.  Teams that get punished by Miami are generally those that fail to generate the offense potent enough to match theirs.  Unlike previous years, the Spurs have that firepower to match that of Miami’s.  And, they have a propensity for letting the other team’s best player score as much as they want, while shutting the rest of his teammates down.  From LeBron in 2007 to Steve Nash/Amare Stoudemire in 2005 to Kobe/Shaq in 2003, the Spurs have orchestrated game plans that allow the team to endure monster performances from individual superstars.  If they beat the loaded Heat, it would not be the first time they will have found a way to beat a superstar-filled team.

Why have they not made the Finals the last couple years?  Two reasons:  Manu Ginobili’s health in 2011, and James Harden’s breakout performance in 2012.  I know that Ginobili is not exactly in prime condition this year.  But unlike 2011 against a tough Memphis Grizzlies team, the current Spurs lineup is built to sustain Ginobili’s inconsistent play – as displayed in this year’s Conference Finals against that very same Memphis team.  And don’t forget that in 2012, they were 10-0 in the playoffs before Harden went ballistic and helped OKC rattle off four straight games against them in the Conference Finals.

2)      Right now, the Spurs are playing better than the Heat.

History has also shown us that the quality of opponents throughout playoff runs has mattered in the Finals.  Out of Miami’s three opponents thus far, only Indiana was a good enough team capable of beating them.  Yes, a team that was 16 ½ games behind them in the conference standings during the regular season  was the only legitimate threat in the East to dethrone the champs.  They were hardly tested after defeating a heavily depleted – albeit an incredibly tenacious – Chicago Bulls team and an overwhelmed Milwaukee Bucks squad.

The Heat deserve credit for eventually dismantling a feisty Pacers squad, but not as much credit as the Spurs should get for what they did to Memphis and Golden State (and heck, even LA).  Unlike Miami’s road through the East, it is no small feat to get through the West.  Before the playoffs even started, San Antonio undeniably limped to the finish of the regular season, giving Lakers fanatics (like Magic Johnson) the audacity to say that the Spurs would be upset by a Kobe-less Los Angeles team in the first round.  Despite Manu being gimpy and Parker battling calf and ankle injuries, they immediately blew that possibility out of the water and gave the Lakers their worst playoff loss in their prestigious history.  They seemed to struggle against a young and feisty Warriors team, but eventually figured them out.  Then, they SWEPT a very formidable Grizzlies team that was just two seasons removed from upsetting the Spurs as an 8^th seed in Round 1.  This season, they are absolutely peaking at the right time.

3)       The Spurs are a worse matchup for Miami than the Pacers were.

There was much talk surrounding Miami’s lack of size, and Indiana proved there were valid concerns about it.  However, size is hardly Miami’s only weakness – it’s just their only glaring weakness that was exposed during the series.  If Roy Hibbert and David West were able to dominate Miami’s front line, what makes you think that Tim Duncan won’t do the same?  The greatest power forward of all time is fresh off taking Zach Randolph completely out of their series against Memphis.  Tiago Splitter was no slouch, either, putting up an admirable defensive effort on Marc Gasol.  Think Chris Bosh, whose anemic performance put added pressure on LeBron and D-Wade to play well against Indiana, can play better against the Spurs’ front court?  I have my doubts.

Miami has also yet to face an elite point guard of Parker’s caliber in the playoffs.  Thanks to injuries, they were fortunate not to run into the likes of Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, or Russell Westbrook – who had a 43 point game on Miami in last year’s Finals.  Then again, the Spurs have yet to face a LeBron, so the mismatches may even out.

With all the talk about Miami’s weaknesses, they more than made up for them in the Conference Finals by taking advantage of Indiana’s weaknesses – weaknesses that the Spurs simply don’t have.  The Heat capitalized on Indiana’s lack of perimeter scoring, as well as their apparent inability to take care of the ball.  That’s NOT going to be the case against San Antonio; the Spurs are masterful at executing offensively and limiting turnovers.  Perimeter scoring obviously will not be an issue with one of the most prolific scoring backcourts in the league in Parker and Ginobili.

You also cannot dismiss Indiana’s inexperience as a major factor for their eventual demise.  Only two Pacers had ever even played in a Game 7 (David West and Sam Young) until Monday night.  You could argue that the pressure of the moment eventually became their undoing.  Needless to say, with San Antonio’s seasoned veterans and coaching staff, the Spurs will not have that problem.

But…

Jun 3, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat shooting guard Dwyane Wade (3) and Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) high five during the third quarter of game 7 of the 2013 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

There are two key factors that could turn this series into the Heat’s favor:  1) a potential superhuman and legendary performance from the King , and 2) officiating.  Just ask the Pacers about the officiating factor, who saw LeBron play 41 minutes in Game 3 (AT Indiana to boot) and was called for ZERO fouls.

Overall, there is no more prediction to make that is more exciting than this one.  Not only have the Spurs and Heat never faced off in the Finals, but neither team was ever at full strength during their current respective eras whenever they did play each other.  Therefore, we have a nonexistent sample size to base our predictions on, so this should be one of the most anticipated Finals in recent memory.  Many are looking for LeBron James to add to his legacy, and are banking on that to happen.  But don’t be shocked if the Spurs are the ones making history.  I expect the Spurs to win in six games.

Brooklyn Nets Breakdown

Biggest Strength:  Star Power

Of course, I’m referring to 2013 All-Star Center Brook Lopez and usually-a-perennial-All-Star Deron Williams.  After a difficult first half of the season, D-Will has returned to becoming one of the league’s elite point guards that we have grown accustomed to seeing. Meanwhile, Lopez has propelled himself into one of the league’s best big men, doing his best to back up Shaq’s labeling of him as the league’s best center.  Joakim Noah is very well equipped defensively to contain Lopez, but the Bulls should not have an answer for D-Will at his best.  Kirk Hinrich is a decent defender at the point, but the Bulls will be at D-Will’s mercy whenever Hinrich’s backup, 5’7” Nate Robinson, is defending him.  I suspect that the Bulls will put either Luol Deng or at times, Jimmy Butler, in the game to try to contain Williams.  Nevertheless, I see a huge series coming from D-Will – especially in a year he has been downgraded from elite stardom status in the eyes of many.

Biggest Weakness:  Outside Shooting

Despite having one of the best scoring backcourts in the NBA in Williams and Joe Johnson, the Nets’ offensive attack is relatively limited by their lack of perimeter shooters.  C.J. Watson and Marshon Brooks can occasionally get hot, but the rest of the team is full of mediocre shooters.  As a result, it is difficult for the team to spread the floor and give Lopez enough room to operate in the paint.  In order to compensate, Williams and Johnson will have to heat up from the outside for the Nets to steal four games from a tough defensive squad like Chicago.

X-Factor: Reggie Evans

Evans is going to be a huge key for Brooklyn.  Can he sustain the rebounding magic he has done all year?  If so, he can give the Nets as much of a boost as he provided the Clippers in last year’s playoffs vs. Memphis’s big team.   With the likes of Noah and Carlos Boozer patrolling the paint, they will need Evans to be heavily active on the glass.  Evans, along with Humphries, has helped the Nets become one of the league’s best rebounding teams – ranking 2^nd in the league in Rebound Rate.

Chicago Bulls Breakdown

Biggest Strength: Low Post Defense

Chicago is one of the toughest teams to score on in the paint – not just because of pure defensive skill, but toughness as well.  At all times on the floor, you will see some combination of Noah, Boozer, and Taj Gibson.  Boozer is not a great one-on-one defender, but Noah is one of the best off-the-ball defenders that has been great at weak side help all season long.  Also, Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler will do their best to contain perimeter penetration, and make the lives of the frontcourt defenders easier.  If D-Will is going to make several trips to the hoop, he is going to take a serious beating along with them.  Just ask LeBron.

Biggest Weakness: Scoring

We all know that the Bulls are a great defensive team under Tom Thibodeau’s legendary defensive schemes.  But do they have enough home run hitters?  With Rip Hamilton being gimpy all season long, Luol Deng is going to have to carry a huge offensive load for this team.  They will also have to rely on Nate Robinson giving them a spark off the bench, something he is well capable of doing on any given night.  But over the course of a seven game series, it’s going to be tough for the Bulls to score consistently.

X-Factor:  Derrick Rose

Easily, D-Rose’s presence on the court – even if only a few minutes – could propel the Bulls past the first round.  The elephant in the room all season long has been when he would be ready to play.  I think he will only feel the need to return if his team needs a lift, a scenario that I think is extremely likely.  Keeping him out of the regular season is one thing, but I think he won’t be able to help himself if he thinks his team needs him in the playoffs.

Prediction:  Bulls in 7

Last year vs. the 76ers, Rose was in the Bulls lineup and, prior to his disastrous ACL injury, not one soul thought they would get upset by Philadelphia.  This year, they are prepared to move forward without him, and Tom Thibodeau has strategized accordingly.  However, I do predict that Rose will return for the Bulls’ first home game to give his team, and the city of Chicago, an inspirational lift.  He most likely won’t produce All-Star caliber numbers that we’ve seen in the past, but his presence alone can will his team to a first round victory.

This will be a very evenly matched series.  Both teams are capable of scoring in transition and in the half court – most conspicuously in the latter (both teams rank in the bottom 5 in Pace Factor).  The Nets’ first playoff season as a Brooklyn franchise should be entertaining, but Chicago will be a tough out for them – especially if Rose comes back.

We all thought the Cavs’ misfortunes in the late 80s was purely a result of the Greatest Ever, MJ himself, bursting onto the NBA superstardom scene in a long series of destroying Cleveland with his legendary clutch play, including the oft-mentioned running jumper against the Cavs on a series-clinching buzzer beater in 1989 (known as “The Shot”).  Turns out a full-on curse spanning two and a half decades has translated all the way to this day, most infamously when today’s greatest NBA player, LeBron James, decided to take his talents to South Beach.

And in their latest morale blow, the Cavs blew a 27-point lead that just so happened to be against LeBron and the reigning NBA champs in the 4th quarter. Because, you know, the Cavs could use more gut-wrenching, soul-crushing defeats – especially against a former legendary ally that betrayed them.

Mar 20, 2013; Cleveland, OH, USA; Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) walks to the bench during a timeout in the second quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Worst of all, LeBron once again showed the Cavs fans – in Cleveland – what they’ve been missing since his departure, posting another triple-double with 25 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists.  Not quite his monster 48-point performance in his first return to Cleveland since The Decision, but impressive nonetheless.  When Cleveland showed some resolve after their severe implosion, they cut Miami’s lead to one with just under five seconds left in the game.  And to add insult to injury, the refs made a very dubious call after the ball went out of bounds with two seconds left; the video replay showed LeBron knocking the ball out of bounds, yet possession was somehow granted to the Heat.  Cleveland had one more shot to send the game into OT, but CJ Miles’ three-point attempt clanked off the rim – a fittingly symbolic imagery of the continuing misfortunes of this team.

That just seems to be the trend with this Cleveland franchise – they show glimpses of hope, but there just seems to be one bad break after another that sets them back.  The fact that this perceived curse spans the generations of Michael Jordan AND LeBron James speaks volumes about how eerily bad the Cavs’ luck has been for several years.

This is the latest misfortune of yet another rough season for Cleveland post LBJ.  We all know how bad they’ve been since LeBron’s departure.  Hell, some even argue that David Stern felt so bad for them that he fixed the 2011 lottery to help Cleveland land their newest promising All-Star in Kyrie Irving.  Their bad luck has translated to both long and short-term affairs – the long-term ones being free agency (or lack thereof) and health (another lack thereof), the short-term being in games.  Even in the game vs. Miami tonight, their two best players (and arguably their two lone bright spots) in Irving and Dion Waiters were out with injuries.  Irving will likely sit out the rest of the season with an injured shoulder, an injury which took major zest out of the Cavs’ season.  And despite Irving’s All-Star season up to that point, the Cavs were still among the league’s worst.  Now without both Irving and Waiters, as well as a prior season-ending injury to Anderson Varejao, it’s difficult to imagine a positive outlook for the rest of the season and beyond.  When it comes to both in-game luck as well as health, the Cavs can never seem to catch a break.

The lesson here is, if you think your team has had some bad luck, you would be wrong – unless you are in Ohio.  And for all the sports analysts that will ramble on and on tomorrow about how this streak will affect the Heat, please stop and consider talking about the worst of Miami’s victims during this winning streak.

To all Cavaliers fans:  you will always have my deepest sympathy.  That is, until you get 25 years of good luck to balance the last quarter-century out.

1. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks

Josh Smith has been rumored in trade talks for years now.  However, with his free agency status pending, he is a virtual lock to go elsewhere.  And why not?  He has put his time in with the team, helping the Hawks go from cellar-dweller status to a respectable playoff team.  He was suspended earlier this season for conduct detrimental to the team.  The one reason to try to keep him is to use him as a lure for Dwight Howard to come to his hometown of Atlanta.  However, if Dwight didn’t put the Hawks on his wish-list last year, why would he go there now?  And if Dwight is unlikely to come, why hold on to Smith?

Feb 8 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Eric Bledsoe (12) during the second half against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

2. Eric Bledsoe, LA Clippers

Eric Bledsoe has really set himself up for a huge paycheck for next year and beyond.  The question is, where is it going to be?  Certainly not in Clipper land, where Chris Paul will presumably sign a long-term deal and run Lob City for years to come.  With his trade value very high, Bledsoe should garner a lot of interest from other teams looking for a solid point guard to build their team around.

3. Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz

With a crowded but talented front court, Utah is not going to be able to hang on to all their bigs.  As a small-market team, we have seen precedence that holding on to more than 2-3 stars is just not feasible (e.g. James Harden in OKC, Rudy Gay in Memphis).  Trading Millsap makes the most sense, as the Jazz will want to give more minutes to their new talented bigs in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter.  At the same time, they can keep their contender status with Al Jefferson manning the middle.  To me, trading Millsap to the Clippers for Bledsoe makes the most sense for both teams.

4. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

I’m going out on a limb here:  while GM Danny Ainge has been adamant about not trading Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce, he remains mum about his newest superstar.  Obviously, tearing his ACL kind of sets back Rondo’s trade value, but teams would still love to have him.  Also, it’s not like this would be the first time Rondo would be shopped around.  The team rattled off eight straight wins in his absence, which may reinforce Rondo’s expendability.  Although a shakeup is due soon, I think Ainge, deep down, does not want to build around the volatile young point guard.

5. Kris Humphries, Brooklyn Nets

Humphries is being actively shopped by the aggressive Nets, most conspicuously in an effort to get Josh Smith from Atlanta.  While that particular exchange seems unlikely, I think Humphries has become the odd man out of Brooklyn in PJ Carlisemo’s playbook.  Besides, Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche have proven to be far more valuable role players.  There’s many teams that could get his hands on him in the next 24 hours, and I suspect that the Nets aren’t going to be it.

Of all the players rumored to be in trade talks, I’ll tell you who’s not getting traded, also.

1. Dwight Howard and 2. Pau Gasol, LA Lakers

Despite the growing speculation that Howard is a lock to leave LA so long as coach Mike D’Antoni and golden boy Kobe Bryant stick around, I highly doubt that Mitch Kupchak will come to his senses and trade Howard.  The team has made it clear that it wants Howard to be the centerpiece of its future.  Problem is, I don’t think Dwight will want to suck it up for another year or two under the tutelage of Kobe and D’Antoni.  It would be equally asinine for the Lakers to keep Howard as it would have been for the Magic to keep him last year.  Be that as it may, don’t expect Howard to leave LA until July 1^st.

As for Gasol, don’t expect him to go anywhere, either.  His foot injury has not only quieted trade talks surrounding him, but also subsided the other troubling subplot of the season:  D’Antoni has NO CLUE how to play his two star bigs together.  None.  The team is about a million times better featuring Gasol in the post rather than Howard, but now that is a moot point.  Lakers will want to keep him in case they make a run at the playoffs – which, by the way, is still a possibility, given the Golden State Warriors’ impending slide in the standings.

3. Kevin Garnett and 4. Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics

Since Rondo went down, the media-driven trade talks surrounding the two current Celtics icons gained some steam.  However, Danny Ainge has been very clear that he does not expect either Garnett or Pierce to get traded.  Garnett has a no-trade clause that he has absolutely no intention of waiving, and Pierce cannot leave Boston for the same reason that Kobe can’t leave Los Angeles, and Tim Duncan can’t leave San Antonio:  you just cannot get rid of your long-standing franchise player.  That’s a big no-no.

5. Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls

Yes, he is overpaid.  And yes, he has been largely disappointing, other than a few stretches of good games this season.  But I think with Derrick Rose presumably coming back soon, the Bulls will want to see one more go-around with the Rose-Boozer-Noah core and make another playoff push.  If Boozer disappoints again, I think he will be shopped heavily over the summer.  But for now, expect him to stay put.

Nov 19, 2012; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Tim Duncan (left), guard Tony Parker (center), and Manu Ginobili (right) watch from the bench during the first half against the Los Angeles Clippers at the AT

If you heard the news that Spurs coach Gregg Popovich would sit out four of his star players for Thursday night’s game against the Miami Heat, you probably didn’t bother watching the game on TNT.  If so, then shame on you.  It ended up being a fantastic game, and you would have gained a whole lot more respect for the San Antonio franchise.

In short, I think this was a BRILLIANT move by Popovich.  That’s right – I’m going to rave about Popovich and the Spurs, because I doubt that many others will.  He is hands down the best coach in the league, and this controversial decision is one of many that makes him as such.

Popvich’s decision to sit out his star trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, as well as swingman Danny Green (who was leading the team in minutes played), caused an uproar with both fans and the league.  Commissioner David Stern even threatened to impose heavy sanctions on them for this act.  I feel sympathetic for the fans that bought tickets to see the Spurs’ stars go at it against the defending champs.  But those of us that respect Popvich gave him the benefit of the doubt.  His reasoning?  The Spurs were playing their 4^th game in 5 nights, and he did not want to overexert his guys this early in the season (his usual grounds for resting his star players and submitting a “DNP – Old” to the box score).  From a basketball standpoint, it makes complete sense.  For the fans hoping to see a star studded game, not so much.  But because Popovich is the one in question, we have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Now, San Antonio did end up losing the game.  But for the game’s first 47 minutes, Popovich and the Spurs showed everyone up and had Miami on the ropes.  If not for a few late heroics from LeBron James and Ray Allen, the Spurs would have easily held on to their late lead and won the game despite being short handed.  For a team whose starting lineup features a guy named Nando del Colo, that’s a pretty damn good showing against the defending champions.  They may have lost the game, but in the end, they received a tremendous boost of confidence in their team overall.  Would they have gained as much from playing their aging stars in what most likely would have been a very hard-fought, grind-out game?  In that sense, Popovich is one of the very few coaches that understand the nuances of building a successful regular season; he was less concerned with winning one game and instead, found a way to give his entire supporting cast a ton of confidence knowing that they can hang with a team like the Heat on their own.  The regular season is a marathon – not a sprint – and he knows exactly how to manage it as such.

His masterful lineup management does not just consist of sitting out his players for entire games.  Within games themselves, he is great at managing minutes for both his stars and role players.  For an aging roster, particularly Duncan (36) and Ginobili (35) , it is absolutely crucial to conserve minutes for the more important games.  In doing that, his bench players provide valuable minutes and gain valuable experience, thus making them better players.  He fully understands that it’s absolutely worth losing a couple regular season games over allowing valuable rest for his stars before the playoff grind.  In the end, he has a well rounded and supremely confident roster.  If you wonder why guys you’ve never heard of can hang with a team like Miami, Popovich’s masterful lineup management is exactly why.

The Spurs have been and continue to be great, and it has little to do with how much talent they have.  To put it in perspective, Duncan is the only former lottery pick on the entire roster.  Unlike teams like the Lakers, their greatness isn’t a result of big time free agent acquisitions either.  The Lakers get a lot of credit for landing free agents, but that has just as much to do with LA being an appealing destination than anything the Lakers front office does.  Spurs GM R.C. Buford, on the other hand, knows what kind of players to get:  those without any egos, players that he knows would get along with Popovich, and would maximize their effort every time they step on the court.  Those with the right attitude excel in Popovich’s system.  Hardly ever do you hear about players on the Spurs roster complaining about their playing time or touches.  You also hardly hear about any of them getting into any off-court incidents (except Tony Parker, though he had no direct involvement with the Chris Brown-Drake nightclub feud over the  summer).  With the media attention constantly centered around teams like the Lakers and Heat, the Spurs always seem to quietly put together a team that’s always in contention for the title.

In short, the Spurs are the best run franchise in the NBA.  From the front office to the team personnel, the organization is top notch.  Being a small market and “boring” team, it’s a shame that everyone takes them for granted.  Tonight’s game only solidified that even more.

I know David Stern is upset, and he’s just sticking up for NBA fans.  But you can’t fault Popovich for being absolutely brilliant – he’s a big reason why the Spurs have one of the NBA’s most successful franchises despite being anything but the center of attention.

Nov 21, 2012; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic shooting guard J.J. Redick (7) and point guard Jameer Nelson (14) talk during a stop in play against the Detroit Pistons during the fourth quarter at Amway Center. Orlando defeated Detroit 90-74. Mandatory Credit: Douglas Jones-US PRESSWIRE

In case you haven’t noticed, there is still a basketball team in Central Florida.  After being the center of media attention for 1.5+ seasons, the Orlando Magic are now the forgotten team of the NBA.  Now that Dwight Howard can no longer hold the franchise hostage, it’s time to evaluate how the team can work its way back to relevance.  Even before Howard was traded, the Magic were given two nationally televised games during 2012-13.  Since then, those networks re-assigned the national telecast to other games, so few will ever have the opportunity to watch this team and give them a fair shake.  As a Magic season ticket holder, I’m among the few who have been able to evaluate the team first hand.  And despite my heavy pessimism about the team’s outlook heading into the season, I have to say I have been pleasantly surprised.  Last night, I watched the team give Boston a run for their money in OT after being down for most of the game, and despite the loss, think there is a lot of good that can come out the game that can carry through the rest of this season.

In what was Dwight’s (and coach Stan Van Gundy’s) last season with the Magic, it was painfully evident how awful the team’s chemistry was.  Even though they were still somehow won 56% of their games, you could tell there was something wrong.  You could see it in the other Magic players’ body language:  they were sick and tired of the soap opera revolving around Dwight.  They couldn’t stand him pointing out their inadequacies.  They simply didn’t want to play with him anymore.

In the blockbuster trade over the summer where superstars were dangling around among three other teams (LA, Denver, and Philadelphia), none of the biggest names were going to Orlando – not Andrew Bynum, not Pau Gasol, not anybody the Magic were originally considering trading for.  Instead, they completely dismantled the team and got a boat load of trade exceptions and draft picks, as well as middle-of-the-road players like Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Nikola Vucevic, and Moe Harkless.  Then began life After Dwight Howard (A.D.12), where the team is now being built around Afflalo, JJ Redick, and Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis – a trio hardly anybody considers to be top tier.

Expected to be the laughingstock in most preseason predictions of various NBA affiliates worldwide (myself included), this Orlando team has been consistently displaying something I never saw last season:  Heart and Hustle.   While their lack of superstar talent is extremely evident, they have been playing like a playoff team, and are better than what their record (5-8) indicates.  As the season progresses, they will either become a lottery team or be a threat to make the 7^th or 8^th seed in the East.  We won’t know which way they will go, but here are a few strengths and weaknesses to consider:

Strengths

Coaching:  Considering the circumstances, new head coach Jacque Vaughn clearly has been managing the team extremely well.  Many scoffed at Orlando’s decision to hire Vaughn over the likes of Brian Shaw, but even Shaq – one of the biggest critics of the acquisition – pointed out that Doc Rivers was the last coach hired by the Magic with no head coaching experience, and we all know he turned out to be one of the best.  I’m not sure if Vaughn will get there, but he has been a dark horse Coach of the Year candidate to me so far.  He has been able to maximize the effort from his young  and inexperienced team.

Shooting:  Most lineups that coach Vaughn has put on the floor have featured five players that can all shoot from the perimeter.  Because they don’t have a dominating force in the paint anymore, this is mostly a perimeter team without any real good slashers (other than a few glimpses of vintage Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu). Nelson, Afflalo, Redick, and Turkoglu can all light it up from downtown, and big guys like Vucevic and Big Baby are fairly consistent from mid-range.

Ball Movement:  With the lack of a go-to superstar, ball movement has been a crucial element to the Magic so far.  A year ago, their offense mostly consisted of force feeding it to Dwight Howard in the post, which often resulted in him displaying his still-raw post game and poor free throw shooting.  Now, there are several shooters spacing the floor, and Nelson and Redick have been able to facilitate the offense fairly efficiently in certain pick-and-roll situations.   Although they are a perimeter oriented team without any great playmakers, they somehow have a decent amount of firepower on offense.

Weaknesses

Rebounding:  Although Vucevic and Big Baby have been holding their own so far, the Magic have often shown an inability to close out defensive plays.  The stats don’t reflect it yet with a small sample size of games, but with undersized bigs like Big Baby and Harkless, this team is going to get outrebounded regularly.

Dribble Penetration:  A team without elite playmakers, slashers, or post players, the Magic do not exactly feature an inside-out attack.  They are currently 2^nd to last in Offensive Efficiency.  Most of their points come from pick and rolls featuring Nelson and Redick, as well as Big Baby’s creativity underneath the basket.  Afflalo, who is the most gifted scorer on the team, needs to improve his ability to penetrate in order to add another dimension to this offense – especially while Hedo Turkoglu is out with a broken hand.

Perimeter and Post Defense:  Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez were licking their chops when they saw this team on their schedule.  The Magic have nobody to keep elite bigs out of the paint.  Also, great point guards like Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo have had absolute field days against this team due to their inability to contain quick perimeter players.  Josh McRoberts has been doing his best against bigs like Lopez and KG, but he can only do so much.

Overall, I have been impressed by the Magic so far.  They are a scrappy, hard-playing team that won’t quit on any given night.  Obviously they have a long way to go, but considering that the team was decimated over the summer and is basically being built from the ground up, Magic fans have a reason to be optimistic about their future.  Of course, they could easily lose a lot of games this year given all their inexperience and weaknesses, but there is light at the end of the tunnel in the A.D.12 era.

February 25, 2012; Orlando FL, USA; TNT anchor and former player Shaquille O

Dear TNT:  Please Fire Shaq.

Before bashing him, let’s get the obvious compliments out of the way:  Shaquille O’Neal is an NBA Legend.  He’s a multiple-time world champion.  He’s a future Hall of Famer.  In his prime, he was the most physically dominant force we’ve ever seen.

I’ll tell you one thing he’s not good at, though:  being a TV analyst.

After he retired, I wrote a piece celebrating all of his career achievements in a positive light.  But in his retirement, he’s single handedly ruining the award-winning and highly entertaining TNT studio show by taking a job with them as an analyst.  Last season in his first year of retirement, Shaq essentially replaced Chris Webber in the studio as a permanent fixture to team up with Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, and the oh-so-lovable Charles Barkley.  Given Shaq’s publicized antics over the years, it seemed like a great idea.  But it wasn’t.

I cannot say enough great things about the rest of the TNT team – the pieces fit so well together and are leaps and  is bounds above any other sports studio show.   If you’re an NBA fan that enjoys top-notch comedic banter, look no further than TNT’s halftime segments and post-game “Inside the NBA” shows.  The plethora of great moments resulting from the original trio of EJ, Kenny, and Charles have captivated NBA fans (and heck, even non-basketball fans) everywhere.  Unlike Shaq, Chris Webber and Reggie Miller have been terrific additions to the team in recent years, as they have provided some great insight and entertaining moments (I particularly get a kick out of C-Webb’s French rendition of saying “Tony Parker” and screaming “Rondoooooooo”).  The in-game commentary from play-by-play commentators Marv Albert and Kevin Harlan, as well as their mix of color commentators (usually a combination of Miller, Webber, Steve Kerr, and Mike Fratello) is top-notch.  Barkley is the most well known and popular name in the TNT family, as he is usually the victim of hilarious pranks (LOVED the Ron Burgundy prank) and classic sound bits of him slurring his words (what’s a Barn Barner?).

But it’s really the whole team that makes the show work.  Kenny and C-Webb are masterful at pointing out Charles’ fumbling over his words, and they never hesitate to call him out on any of his blunders.  As the anchor of the show, Ernie Johnson is absolutely phenomenal at spearheading the crew.  The quips and banter often get out of hand, and he knows exactly when to rope the guys in when they get out of control.  But at the same time, he knows when to let the banter fester when appropriate.   Most importantly, they all seem to genuinely enjoy each other’s company, and none of them seem to feel that working in the studio is a chore.

It’s not just the non-basketball related pranks and gibberish that make these guys fun to watch.  When these guys get serious and do talk basketball, the analysts’ perspectives are extremely informative and enlightening.  I find that I learn something new about the nuances of basketball every time I listen in.  In terms of both personality types and playing experience, Kenny, Charles, and C-Webb complement each other extremely well.  Kenny was an average NBA player, but as the lone champion of the three, gives a lot of valuable perspective on culture of championship-caliber teams.  He sheds light on a lot on the dynamic of his championship teams and interactions with the great then-teammate Hakeem Olajuwon, and compares that dynamic to that of modern day basketball superstars.  Barkley and C-Webb, while never having won a title, still carry a lot of credibility as former superstars themselves.  As they know first-hand what it’s like to fall just short of a title, they readily recognize what current NBA stars must do in order to get over the barriers that they themselves failed to conquer.  Because of the instant credibility that the three of these analysts bring to the table, even current players are curious about their opinions and watch the TNT segments to listen to their evaluations on various teams and players.

February 26, 2012; Orlando FL, USA; TNT analyst and former player Shaquille O

While the dynamic is still overall solid despite Shaq’s presence, the Diesel has clearly hampered the show’s innate quality.  I know he’s still new to this TV gig and there are some things he will get better at, such as not cursing while on live TV.  But overall, he adds neither humor nor valuable perspective to the show.  Shaq has been known to be a clown and has given us some laughs over the years, but his humor does not translate to the studio as well as it did in his past antics.  The low pitched, monotone voice puts viewers of “Inside the NBA” to sleep after TNT doubleheaders instead of waiting around to see what Chuck and Kenny have in store.  His once-funny one-line quips don’t work as well today in discussion forums as they used to in quick postgame interviews.

As for the basketball side of things, Shaq constantly fails to provide an objective opinion on the NBA’s hot topics.  It’s very difficult for him to separate his personal feelings and beef with current players (most conspicuously Dwight Howard) in his assessments as an analyst.  I’m sorry – I despised Dwight Howard’s handling of his situation in Orlando as much as anyone, but unlike Shaq I know he’s a better center than Robin Lopez and Andrew Bynum.  Okay, I know he meant Brook Lopez, but even that mix-up goes to show he’s not very crisp on his NBA knowledge nevertheless.  His beef with Pat Riley has also made him refuse to acknowledge Riley whenever the subject of great NBA coaches comes up.  His rifts with players and coaches were entertaining when he was on the court, but he needs to learn to let those slide when he’s in the studio as an objective analyst.  This inability to be unbiased shreds his credibility compared to that of Kenny and Charles; it’s evident that the opinions of the latter two analysts are really taken to heart by viewers everywhere.  On the contrary with Shaq, everybody knows he’s just talking out of his behind.

TNT’s NBA segments would not miss a beat without Shaq.  In fact, it was already a whole lot better without him.  Last season (his first with TNT), he got the nod as the 3^rd analyst behind Kenny and Charles, relegating C-Webb to strictly either calling games, or sticking to the NBA TV studio.  But from Day One, it was clear that C-Webb blends with Kenny and Charles a whole lot better.  If Shaq left, we would get more of both C-Webb and Reggie Miller in the studio (although Reggie might be best suited as a color commentator).  Even though Shaq didn’t get fired after last year’s dreadful performance, at least TNT wised up and put C-Webb in the studio along with Shaq, Kenny, and Charles in last week’s TNT segments.  But that studio looks a little crowded with all four (including EJ), and I say the behemoth’s gotta go.

My message to TNT:  PLEASE give Shaq the pink slip.  Don’t keep letting him continue to harm the perfect chemistry among everybody else.  Let’s get back to the classic banter and eye-opening thoughts of the rest of the guys that make this show great before Shaq compromises the quality of this fantastic show any further.

Mr. Stern:  THIS is the trade you should block – not the Chris Paul trade you rejected last year.

To come out of a heavily one-sided trade happens with every team – but only once in a while.  But when it comes to the Lakers, time after time do they seem to get great players while not giving up too much in return.

Let’s just go down the list:  Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol, and now Dwight Howard.  How many teams in NBA history have even sniffed the possibility of having one of those guys?  The Lakers have sniffed ALL of them.  Let’s look at what the Lakers have given up for this colossal collection of great big men:

Of all the combined “Players Traded in Exchange” column, how many of them were Hall of Famers?  Zero.  All-Stars?  Only a couple.  Scoring/rebounding champs?  Zero.  I know you’re never going to get equal value when trading a superstar, but no other franchise has acquired THAT much star power without giving up much in return.  The Pau Gasol acquisition was particularly horrendous – perhaps the most lopsided trade in NBA history.  Sure, brother Marc might be the better player now.  But to not give up any of your top 10 players in a given season in exchange for Gasol is outrageous.  At the time, Kwame Brown was the centerpiece on LA’s end for that trade.  Furthermore, getting Gasol spelled the end of a brief period of turmoil in LA, where Kobe was only a few months removed from demanding a trade from the Lakers unless they were able to make a big splash in a trade – which of course they eventually did.

The trade for Chamberlain was obviously one-sided, but they only won one title out of it – thanks to Bill Russell and the Celtics.  You can also argue that Wilt was on the downside of his career at the time.  Kareem, on the other hand, was a godsend – leading the Lakers along with Magic Johnson (one of the few great players the Lakers actually drafted – and not pried away via free agency or trades) to five titles with the Showtime Lakers.

Shaq was a different story, albeit similar to Dwight’s.  Much like Howard, Shaq had a lot of drama going on in Orlando – but it was a different type of drama; Shaq had run-ins with then-teammate Penny Hardaway, fighting over endorsement deals and things of that nature.  Also, Shaq claimed that then-coach Brian Hill did not respect him, and that the Magic were not willing to stand up for him.  Howard claims that the Magic franchise is mistreating him in a similar manner (just refer back to the drama with ex-coach Stan Van Gundy), but he has been stretching for reasons to leave Orlando long before he approached free agency.  In any case, Orlando lost Shaq without compensation, and Shaq went on to win three consecutive titles.

We all consider Kobe to be a homebred Laker, but he wasn’t exactly up for grabs to begin with; he was drafted 13^th overall in the 1996 draft by the (then-) Charlotte Hornets.  However, rumor had it that he announced he would only want to play for the Lakers.  When the Hornets realized this, they had to trade him immediately for Vlade Divac.   Little did Kobe know that he would have the fortune of playing with not one, not two, but THREE great big men (four if you include Andrew Bynum, who got shipped to Philadelphia as part of the four-team trade) throughout his career.

Even outside of acquiring players, I don’t think ANY team has experienced the same plethora of lucky breaks over the last decade that the Lakers have.  Whether it was Robert Horry’s game-winning 3 in Game 4 vs. the Sacramento Kings in 2002, Derek Fisher’s shot with 0.4 seconds left vs. San Antonio in 2004, or their unfathomable Game 7 4^th-quarter 15point deficit comeback vs. Portland in 2000, the Lakers always seem to come through an inordinate number of times.  But that’s another story, and you always have to give credit to teams that gut it out.

Now, what does this mean for the NBA?  Owners wanted the new CBA to prevent super-teams from forming.  They were weary of the Big 3’s that had been forming up to that point (Boston, Miami, etc.).  Now, they have to worry about a Big 4 in LA.  If I were Orlando, Philadelphia, or Denver, I would not have allowed this trade to happen.  At least, not with the Lakers keeping Gasol.  No way.

Sure, the Lakers are the NBA’s premier franchise – but they’ve had a whole lot of unexplainable and unfathomable luck to go with it.

Oh, and by the way, they also got two-time MVP Steve Nash for nothing.

WINNERS

New Jersey Brooklyn Nets

With owner Mikhail Prokhorov having no regard whatsoever for the salary cap, the team is convinced that their owner will do whatever it takes to make this team a contender for years to come.  Also, it appears that for now, they decided to move on from their attempts to acquire Dwight Howard – something I think we will eventually look back on as a blessing in disguise (more on that later).  Moving forward, they have a solid core of Williams, Johnson, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, and Brook Lopez as their starting five.  For a team that was only slightly better than the Charlotte Bobcats last year, that’s not a bad upgrade.

Miami Heat

After winning the NBA championship in convincing fashion, the league’s most scrutinized team may be even harder to beat this year by adding former Supersonics Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis.  This is exactly the kind of reloading that they needed, especially with their aging roster.  Allen and Lewis will be more than sufficient replacements for sharpshooter Mike Miller.  Miller, after an absolutely scintillating performance in the title-clinching Game 5 of the NBA Finals, does not look like he can play anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if Shane Battier holds up, as well.

Allen, who is fresh off a bit of a contentious divorce with the Boston Celtics (given the loss of his starting spot to Avery Bradley and rumored tension with Rajon Rondo), should be motivated to face his old team next season.  Overall, the Big Three should have a sufficient supporting cast and be in a great position to repeat next year.

Los Angeles Lakers

Once again, the Lakers were able to make a big splash that pissed off every GM in the league.  In their franchise history, they managed to steal Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, and Pau Gasol.  This time, they were able to pry Steve Nash from the Suns.

For those who thought Nash would feel awkward about going to the Lakers (myself included), LA fans sure have been doing their part to make him feel at home.  Offensively, this team will be an absolute beast to deal with.  Nash is exactly the kind of player who will engage Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum correctly and get them to be more engaged in Mike Brown’s offense.  That is, if Brown trusts Nash to do what he wants on offense.  They are absolutely a scary team to deal with, and only age (in the case of Kobe, Nash, and Gasol) can stop them.  If they have a strong regular season, it will help dispel future trade rumors involving Bynum or Gasol.

LOSERS

New York Knicks

If Knicks fans did not have Carmelo Anthony – who is scoring at will in this year’s Olympics – to watch this summer, they should be in utter disbelief about their franchise.  Letting Jeremy Lin go to the Houston Rockets was heartbreaking for all whose love for the Knicks was revitalized during Linsanity.  James Dolan picked a really weird time to be frugal; I do think Lin would have been overpaid had the Knicks matched the Rockets’ offer, but his marketing value would have at least brought the Knicks something back in return.  After a history of severely overpaying players like Howard Eisley, Othella Harrington, Allan Houston, Keith Van Horn, Shandon Anderson – all of whom provided very little in return compared to Lin – why not overpay a guy who will at least return some value to the franchise?

Still, their defense improved considerably last season – thanks to their reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Tyson Chandler.  If Raymond Felton can do away with his miserable performance as a Trail Blazer, Iman Shumpert can return to health after tearing his ACL in the playoffs, and Amare Stoudemire somehow gets his bum knee and back healed, the Knicks can potentially be a top-four team in the East.  But that’s way too many ifs and buts, and I expect the Knicks to lose many games and fans, who will be very tempted to cheer for the other newer (and better) team in New York.

Orlando Magic

Poor Rob Hennigan.  The up-and-coming executive gets a GM gig after years of success on the staffs of San Antonio and Oklahoma City.  Now, he has to face the biggest offseason pain in the a** in NBA history – Dwight Howard.  I’ve already ranted about him twice (here and here), so I don’t think I need to repeat why the Magic are in such bad shape by keeping him – especially now that they will apparently be going through the same exact drama for whole ‘nother year.  Only this time, we have no idea what the condition of his surgically repaired back is, and whether he will be in uniform on opening night.  And when he does return, will he be the same player he was before completely quitting on his team last season?

In the end, Orlando still has time to trade Howard.  Since no player remotely close to Dwight’s caliber (i.e. Andrew Bynum, Brook Lopez) wanted to commit to an extension in Orlando this early, the Magic have no choice but to roll the dice until the trade deadline.  So far, Howard has done nothing but given every team in the league a lot of fear about acquiring him.

TBD

Atlanta Hawks

Newly appointed GM Danny Ferry has done an outstanding job getting this team to start fresh; by offloading the hefty contracts of Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams (remember when the Hawks picked him at 2^nd overall over Deron Williams and Chris Paul in the 2004 draft?), the Hawks will now have a lot of cap space to work with in the coming offseasons.  Ferry fully realized that the team as constructed would never advance past the 1^st or 2^nd round of the playoffs, and decided to shake things up.  Whether or not they will be able to land free agents is another story.  With a still-young core nucleus of Al Horford and Josh Smith, this team has a chance to add some pieces and reload for the long run.

Boston Celtics

Now that they are moving on without Ray Allen, the Boston Celtics still find themselves as an aging contender.  Luckily for them, the East is not very good, and only Miami stands out as a clear cut superior team (that is, with Derrick Rose anticipated to be injured for the first chunk of next season for the Bulls).

Despite losing Allen, the Celtics have quietly reloaded and will likely be a tough out in the playoffs – again.  Aside from re-signing KG and Brandon Bass, they made some subtle moves that will keep them afloat atop the Eastern Conference.  With their lack of offensive firepower being exposed by Miami in last year’s Conference Finals, they knew they couldn’t afford to NOT replace Ray Allen.  In that regard, Jason Terry is a more-than-adequate replacement for him.  Furthermore, they may have gotten the biggest steal in this year’s draft in Jared Sullinger, who slipped in the draft due to surfacing reports of concerns about his back.  Also, Jeff Green will be returning after sitting out last year following heart surgery.

Los Angeles Clippers

Getting Blake Griffin to commit to the franchise long term was huge.  Grant Hill will provide them a nice boost, too.  Even so, it will still take a lot of work for the Clippers to build on last season’s playoff run.  As long as Chris Paul continues his all-around brilliance, Griffin returns to health from his knee injury, and Chauncey Billups returns and stays healthy, they are a contender.  But given Billups’ age, and newly-acquired Lamar Odom’s flaky personality, this team’s success will be hard to predict.

A fitting name in both literal and figurative senses for what many consider the “dream” NBA Finals matchup.  With one of the best Conference Finals – on both sides – in the books, we are now looking forward to what should be an even more thrilling, fast-paced, and star-studded series.

Coaches Scott Brooks and Erik Spoelstra will have their hands full breaking down the variety of matchups each team can throw at one another.  To try to simplify things, I am breaking down where each team’s advantages lie, and what each team need to capitalize on to become NBA champions.

The most intriguing matchup of all will be the battle of likely Finals MVPs: LeBron James (left) vs. Kevin Durant (right)

Big Three:   Advantage – slight edge to Miami

The Big Three of Miami will need to prove they are THE premier Big Three in these Finals

The most intriguing dynamic of this series will center around the star players on each side:  Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden for OKC, and LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh for Miami.

While the threesomes on both sides are pretty evenly matched, I’ll go out on a limb and say Miami has the edge.  Overall, Miami’s Big 3 is a little more accomplished in their careers so far than that of OKC’s.  No doubt will OKC’s Big 3 be a force for years to come, and they may very well turn the tables during this series.  But for now, I’ll say that Miami’s Big 3 are slightly better.

In this series, we will be seeing who appears to be a near full-strength Chris Bosh.  Time and time again, he has been reminding us why he’s such a big part of the team.  In Game 7 vs. Boston, he was the key difference; he was ultra efficient, scoring 19 points on 8-10 shooting, including 3-4 from three point range.  At the end of the fourth quarter during Miami’s 28-15 run to put away the game, LeBron and D-Wade took turns taking punches at Boston, but it was Bosh’s three in the corner that sparked the run and delivered the crushing blow to the Celtics’ title hopes.  Despite being much-maligned over the last two seasons, Bosh on the court makes Miami a much, much better team.

Offense:  Advantage – slight edge to OKC

We all know how electrifying the Big 3 on each team can be.  But as far as overall teams go, the Thunder have a bit more firepower throughout their rotation; most of their supporting cast is capable of making great contributions offensively.  You saw evidence of this when Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, and Nick Collison – three of their weaker offensive players – combined for 49 points in Game 4 of their series against San Antonio.

Miami, on the other hand, is very limited outside of the Big 3 on offense.  In the end, they made it to the Finals due to the sheer brilliance of LeBron and Wade carrying them through basically the last two rounds.  But little offense can be generated from Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony and company, while OKC can produce from all five positions.

Defense:  Advantage – Even

Both teams have been stellar defensively.  On Miami’s end, LeBron has become a hell of a defender, and Wade ain’t too shabby either.  Throw in Haslem and Battier’s ability to take charges in the paint, and Westbrook and Durant will have to be very mindful of picking up offensive fouls.

OKC’s length and athleticism makes them very hard to score on – especially for role players trying to create shots for themselves.  Ibaka is one of the best help defenders in the game, averaging 3.3 blocks this postseason.  But if he’s matched up against Bosh, Bosh’s ability to hit perimeter jumpers will keep him from roaming the lane.

Overall, defensive (and offensive) advantages will come down to effort (i.e. offensive rebounds, fastbreak points, second shot attempts, forced turnovers, etc.) between the two teams – not ability.

Supporting Cast:  Advantage – OKC

For the most part, the Big Three of OKC have been able to rely on their supporting cast throughout the playoffs

This is an unquestionable advantage for the Thunder, especially with Sixth Man of the Year James Harden coming off the bench.  Miami’s 2^nd unit has no one to match the energy of Harden, Nick Collison and company.  Limitations of productivity from Miami’s role players have been an issue all season long, and figure not to change much here; Miami’s Big 3 will have to carry 90% of the scoring and playmaking burden.  This means that Erik Spoelstra is going to give his star players some heavy minutes all series long.  Neither team has a very good front court, but OKC has a slightly more productive one.  And bench wise, it’s not even close.

Chemistry:  Advantage – OKC

Overall, the Thunder are playing with much better cohesion at both ends of the floor at this particular juncture.  While Miami has looked great at times, they struggled mightily against Boston (and for a couple games vs. Indiana).  Guys seemed to struggle spacing the floor and knowing where to be on offense.  If games are close, one would have to favor the Thunder to close out games.  Late in close games, Miami has the tendency to run very isolation-heavy plays that are really hit-or miss, while OKC always seems to pull through somehow in tight situations.   Also, Durant has been a lot more clutch down the stretch of several games than anyone on Miami has.

Experience:  Advantage – Miami

No question about this one.  Miami was two wins away from winning last year’s title, while OKC was still a young and up-and-coming team last season.  Both, however, lost to the same defending champion Dallas Mavericks.  Still, Wade and Haslem are proven champions and bring their battle-tested experience to this series, while LeBron has a whole lot of playoff miles as well.  Wade, in particular, seems to raise his level of play during the Finals – as he did in both 2006 (when he was Finals MVP) and 2012.  As long as LeBron doesn’t melt down the same way he did in last year’s Finals, Wade should be able to close out tough games.

None of OKC’s best players – KD, Westbrook, and Harden – are older than 23 years, and this is their first go-around in the NBA Finals.  On a stage where many players and teams admitted experiencing stage fright, this is the one legitimate potential downfall I can see in OKC right now.

Keys for Oklahoma City

1.  Utilize home court advantage:  Thus far, Oklahoma City has looked invincible on their home floor and has yet to lose a game at Chesapeake Energy Arena during the playoffs.  So, with Miami looking vulnerable on theirs – losing home games against both Indiana and Boston – OKC must take capitalize on their own home court advantage, particularly in the 2-3-2 format.  If they hold serve at home, it will be very tough for the Heat to win three consecutive games in Miami.
2. Russell Westbrook:  Miami has absolutely NO answer at the point guard position for him, and they have historically struggled against teams with great offensive point guards.  If Westbrook scores 20+ ppg, the Thunder will be in very good shape and cause chaos on Miami’s defense.  A lot of Westbrook naysayers complain about him taking more shots than Durant too often, but since Westbrook has this much of a matchup advantage, I would not have a problem with him shooting more than Durant in every game.
3. Zone Defense:  Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins must clog the lanes and force LeBron and Wade to shoot perimeter shots.  Outside of Bosh, Miami’s frontcourt depth is very weak offensively, so either Perkins or Ibaka should be able to float around the lane – just as Kevin Garnett did for most of the Eastern Conference Finals.   LeBron just had two outstanding shooting games against the Celtics, particularly in Game 6 in Boston.  But if you’re the Thunder, you have to go by percentages and let LeBron beat you with jumpers – not driving and creating shots for teammates.  LeBron has had two ridiculously efficient outside shooting games in the last five years:  Game 6 in Boston (45 points on 19-26 shooting), and once as a Cav (48 points on 18-33 shooting, including the Cavaliers’ final 25 points) in Game 5 of the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Detroit.  If LeBron makes that a more common occurrence in the Finals, then there’s nothing Oklahoma City can do to stop him.

Keys for Miami

1. Create driving lanes for LeBron and D-Wade:  When the two-headed monster of James and Wade are aggressively attacking the basket, Miami is clearly at its best.  In fact, to help create more driving lanes and make way in the paint for them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miami go small with a Battier, James, and Bosh front court.  This will make Scott Brooks consider taking Kendrick Perkins out of the lineup, since he tends to struggle against small-ball offenses.  With Perkins being a real enforcer down in the paint, playing small to take him out of the equation could pay dividends for the Heat and its ability to create driving lanes.
2. Keep Durant and Westbrook on the perimeter:  Although Durant and Westbrook are much better shooters than Wade and LeBron, Miami must defend OKC’s superstars the same way OKC is defending theirs.  When OKC struggles offensively, it’s when Durant and Westbrook settle for long jump shots.  Long shots lead to long rebounds, and this would trigger Miami’s lethal fast break game.
3. Outside shooters must contribute:  Throughout the postseason, Mike Miller (18 mpg, 37% FG), James Jones (8 mpg, 35% FG), and Shane Battier’s (31% FG, 32 mpg) presence has been spotty at best.  Miller, in particular, seems to be a prime candidate to be amnestied this offseason.   To be fair, Spoelstra hasn’t placed much trust in them –especially Miller and Jones.  But in order to space the floor enough for LeBron and D-Wade to attack the rim, it is essential that these guys knock down outside shots.  The Thunder have arguably the best length and athleticism at all five positions in the league, making them a stellar defensive team – especially when it comes to help defense.  If Miami’s shooters prevent the Thunder from clogging the paint by forcing them to respect their shooters, things will really open up for Miami’s offense.

Prediction

On paper, this is shaping up to be one of the most star-studded, explosive, fast-paced, and exciting Finals we’ve ever seen.  It’s a total crapshoot to predict what’s going to happen in this series because of how evenly matched they are, and both teams will have a hard time gaining momentum for an extended period of time due to explosiveness on both ends.  In this case, I think experience will eventually prevail, and LeBron will get the King Kong-sized gorilla off his back and win his first championship.

Miami Heat's LeBron James (6) and Dwyane Wade (3) talk during the second half of Game 5 of an NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series against the Indiana Pacers, in Miami on Tuesday, May 22, 2012. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

But..I would not be surprised at all if OKC wins.  They are the favorites heading into this series, after all. Also, to quote Gregg Popovich after his Spurs lost to OKC in the Conference Finals, the Thunder will have gone through the teams that won 11 of the last 13 NBA championships – Dallas (2011), LA (2000-02, 09-10), San Antonio (1999, 2003, 05, 07), and Miami (2006).  And just to re-emphasize, none of their stars are older than 23 years.  Incredible.

Either way, strap yourselves onto the couch for the upcoming Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday nights…and get ready for playoff basketball at its best.

Miami in 7

All things considered, the Lakers have overachieved this season.  Since the offseason, there was a series of team chemistry-crushing events that make me wonder why anybody expected them to win a championship.  First, their offseason turmoil last summer was overshadowed by that of the Orlando Magic with the Dwight Howard debacle.  After being swept by Dallas in last year’s playoffs, the Lakers did almost nothing to improve their team.  In fact, they took about five steps back over the course of the season.  Considering their lack of chemistry with this particular roster and style of play, current or incoming players that did not meet expectations, or uncertainty with the roster as well as coaching staff and general disarray, the Lakers should consider themselves lucky for getting this far.

That being said, let’s break down the top three reasons why the Lakers fell short this year.

1. Instability of the team caused by the front office and coaching staff

The quality of roster management of this team has been shaky at best, and the trade rumors didn’t help matters there.  Star bigs Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum dealt were involved in trade rumors virtually all season.  In fact, Gasol was almost shipped as part of the Chris Paul trade that David Stern eventually nixed – something that many seem to think would have made them serious title contenders had Stern not rejected it.  Since last season, Bynum has been in trade rumors involving Dwight Howard.  Clearly, the trades made (as well as the trade talk) affected the chemistry of the team.  Even when Kobe Bryant pleaded to GM Mitch Kupchak to make up his mind on the trade rumors – particularly with Gasol – in an attempt to establish some stability for the team, Kupchak and the Laker management continued to keep the team in a state of limbo.  Even Derek Fisher – a staple of the Lakers’ success over the years and one of Kobe’s best friends – was sent packing.

Feb 22, 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant (24) head coach Mike Brown (left) forward Pau Gasol and center Andrew Bynum (17) after a timeout from the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. The Lakers beat the Mavs 96-91. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

A lack of cohesion can be blamed on the coaching staff, as well.  On several segments of the ESPN/ABC studio show, I heard Magic Johnson make several critical comments about Mike Brown and his inability to make in-game adjustments.  He emphasized the fact that this has hindered Brown’s playoff success in years past with Cleveland, as well.  While I don’t disagree with that, people do need to understand how different his system is than that of his predecessor, Phil Jackson.  The Lakers got very accustomed to Jackson’s triangle offense, and Kobe and Gasol absolutely flourished in that system that helped them get to three NBA Finals (and winning two of them).  Talk about big shoes to fill. Adjusting to a new system takes time.  But at the same time, Brown had to realize that he did not have the personnel to run his pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop schemes.  Bynum and Gasol were vastly underutilized throughout the season, despite the two of them being a matchup advantage for the Lakers on a nightly basis.

May 19, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder power forward Serge Ibaka (9) guards Los Angeles Lakers power forward Pau Gasol (16) in the second half of game four in the Western Conference semi finals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Staples Center. Thunder won 103-100. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

2.  Pau Gasol got fed up

As I mentioned, there has been a lot of misplaced finger pointing going on.  One of the biggest scapegoats, of course, is Pau Gasol.  Now, because of how badly people underestimate Gasol’s impact as a Laker, allow me to take the time to defend him.  Since STEALING him from Memphis in 2009 (which was quite possibly the most lopsided and shadiest trade in NBA history), the Lakers have had a 70%+ winning percentage with Gasol.  In their two championship runs in 2009 and 2010, he outplayed many of the league’s premier power forwards and centers in crucial playoff games (Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, and Nene to name a few), even after being universally labeled “soft” in his first season as a Laker in 2007-08.  He became arguably the best two-way big man in the league, and is one of the few top talents that don’t mind playing with Kobe (at least until now).   Being in the shadow of Kobe, his impact has been vastly underrated, and is one of the most underrated true team players on a championship team that I can remember.

That being said, Gasol obviously had a subpar and inconsistent year.  But before you go on blaming him, there are many reasons why Gasol’s play has suffered this season.  First and foremost is the coaching situation, as described above.  He thrives in the post – not running pick-and-roll offenses 20+ feet from the basket.  The second major factor why Gasol is so jaded was the aforementioned nixed trade for CP3.  You saw how Lamar Odom, who was in the same trade, reacted – he was distraught to the point where LA had to dump him to Dallas for basically nothing.  Gasol, on the other hand, maintained his professionalism throughout the season, despite continuing to be in trade rumors and being called out by fans (and sometimes his teammates…and by his teammates, I mean Kobe – more on that below).  When the trade for CP3 got nixed, I thought it was a blessing in disguise, as the Lakers front court depth would have suffered severely without him.  In the end, why he constantly seems get blame and a lack of appreciation is beyond me.

Let’s go back to Kobe for a second.  We all admire his drive and competitiveness, and the fact that he’s almost 34 and is stillarguably somehow one of the top 5 players in the league (I was talking to a coworker, a Laker fan, about this:  he’s only a year younger than KG and is the same age as Jermaine O’Neal – yet we consider the latter two to be much, much older).  But this season, not unlike other seasons, he has made several team-dividing comments. When Kobe publicly criticized Gasol for his play in Game 4, TNT’s Charles Barkley couldn’t help but say that Kobe should have been the one to blame for his atrocious shot selection; the Lakers were up handily in that game, and Kobe went away from throwing the ball into Gasol and Bynum and took several contested long jumpers.  In the waning moments of Game 5, even with the game out of hand, Kobe was expressing a constant visible frustration toward Gasol on several plays where it appeared the two were not on the same page.  Let’s not forget that this is not the last time he has called out his teammates and refused to shoulder any blame – I will never forget when he completely quit on his team in two very important games:  Game 7 vs. Phoenix in the first round of the 2006 playoffs, and Game 6 of the 2008 NBA Finals vs. Boston.  As much praise as Kobe gets for his freakish durability, high level of play and intense competitiveness, instances like these can help one understand why many players don’t like playing with him.  I think he’s been extremely overcritical of Gasol, and I don’t think Gasol wants to play another possession with Kobe.

March 29, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers power forward Pau Gasol (16) and guard Kobe Bryant (24) during the first half of the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

Because of these issues Gasol has had this season with both the front office and Kobe, I think he’s gone this offseason.  He’s sick of being in trade rumors, and he’s sick of being called out and blamed.  And when he does get traded, hopefully he will be in a system more conducive to his strengths.  Maybe then he will get the recognition as an elite player that he deserves.

3.  The supporting cast was terrible

The issues went deeper than just the star players.  The Lakers’ supporting cast was among the worst of the league over the season (their bench was DEAD last in scoring this season).  Ron Artest, Steve Blake, Ramon Sessions, and Matt Barnes proved not to be effective enough to put the Lakers over the top.  Changes to the roster over the course of the season proved not to be very constructive, either.  Two vital pieces to their 09 and 10 championship runs – Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher – were no longer there.  When they acquired Ramon Sessions from Cleveland, I was suspicious that he would provide the same impact as Derek Fisher.  Early on, he seemed to be on track to proving me wrong (12.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in 30.5 mins per game as a Laker).  But after a horrible postseason (9.7 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.0 rebounds a game), the Lakers have to wonder if they should have got rid of Fisher, who is now in a position to win a title NOT in a Laker uniform.

Before the playoffs even started, Artest didn’t help matters after earning a seven-game suspension for elbowing James Harden into a concussion.  His absence made the Lakers already-thin bench even worse, and was a big reason why LA even struggled closing out Denver in the first round.  In my opinion, they were very fortunate to even advance past them; if Blake didn’t catch fire in Game 7, the Lakers could have gone home much earlier.  Other than Jordan Hill, the Laker role players were a disappointment.

What should the Lakers do?

With Kobe making $30 million next year, there is not much that LA can do in free agency.  Their best move would be to throw Bynum and whoever else Orlando wants (other than Kobe) for Dwight Howard.  But then, you would have to look at the coaching situation.  If LA gets Howard, is Mike Brown the right coach for them?  He failed to find ways to get two of the league’s best post players to get consistent touches.  Howard had issues with his Orlando teammates for not getting the ball enough; how do you think he will like Brown’s offensive schemes?

Some have gone as far as to say the Lakers should consider amnesty’ing Kobe.  As much as I blame him for having an adverse psychological affect on his teammates, I still think waiving him is an extreme.  Of all players on the team, he is the one lock to remain in a Laker uniform.

I know this is never gonna happen, but LA and Orlando should make the first ever head coach trade.  I honestly think both teams would be better off.

Summary

Ultimately, the Lakers’ failures have been a result of a lack of chemistry – from the front office to the coaches, and to the players as well.  The fact that they were a few breaks away from possibly being in a position to make the Conference Finals is nothing short of amazing.  I expect a major overhaul over the offseason, with Kobe being the lone guaranteed Laker next season.

May 6, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague (0) drives the ball against Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo (9) in the second quarter of game four in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the TD Garden. The Celtics defeated the Atlanta Hawks 101-79. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

When Rajon Rondo was suspended for Game 2, the Boston Celtics still found a way to win in Atlanta.  With Josh Smith out of the lineup for Game 3, the Hawks nearly returned the favor of getting a road win without their star player.  In the end, the Celtics held off the Hawks in overtime.  Al Horford found his way back to the court in Game 4 after a 4-month layoff, but his teammates were just as rusty as he was as the Celtics routed Atlanta.  With a game under his belt, Horford played a whopping 41 minutes, scored 19 points and pulled 11 rebounds, and led the Hawks to a Game 5 victory.

At last, we will our first official Game 6 of the postseason!

Keys for Atlanta

If not for Horford’s tremendous stop on Rajon Rondo during the final seconds of Game 5, The Hawks could have gone fishin’ by now.  To me, the turning point of Game 5 was Horford stepping up his defense in the 2^nd half.  It helped him get into a groove offensively, as well.  He did a good job on Brandon Bass, closing out on his 17-20 footers – a range of shots which he seemingly never misses and earns him the nickname “Bass-O-Matic.”  After shaking off the rust in Game 4, Horford reminded us why he is such an important piece to Atlanta on both ends of the court – whether he was hitting perimeter shots, or providing a defensive presence in the interior.

As encouraging as Horford’s comeback has been, Atlanta has several issues to address elsewhere.  In Game 5, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith were a combined 12-33 (36%) from the field and turned the ball over 8 times – in large part due to Rondo’s omnipresence on the Hawks’ passing lanes.  They managed to squeak by last time, but they MUST shoot better and take better care of the ball if the Hawks have any chance of forcing a Game 7.  Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams – who caught fire from beyond the arc in the 2^nd quarter to rally the Hawks back from an early deficit – must continue to make significant contributions, as well.

Keys for Boston

The Celtics nearly closed out the series on Tuesday night despite a mediocre performance from Paul Pierce (16 points on 7-17 FG), thanks to some pesky defense – especially from Rajon Rondo.  When Rondo is locked in defensively, he causes absolute havoc on the Hawks’ offense.  Johnson and Smith probably had nightmares of Rondo, who deflected several of their passes and had five steals in the game.  He even picked off Josh Smith’s inbound pass at the end of Game 5 to give the Celtics one last chance to finish off the series.

To finish off the Hawks, the Celtics must capitalize on being at home and muster the energy they usually do at the Boston Garden.  Avery Bradley  has done a good job harassing Joe Johnson, who has been quite shaky with the ball in this series.  Also, I think Doc Rivers’s priority should be to slow down Al Horford.  To do this, I think he will have Kevin Garnett match up against him.  If Pierce puts his imprint on the game early and if Garnett can slow down Al Horford, the Celtics should find a way to close out the series.

Prediction

Al Horford is only getting more comfortable since his return from injury, and will make it tough for Boston again.  But this time, I think Doc Rivers will make an adjustment and make Josh Smith be the one taking outside jump shots instead of Horford.  Atlanta has also had trouble getting consistent contributions from its role players on the road, which was a big reason why they got blown out in Game 4 in Boston.  Unless Johnson and Smith are fantastic, I think Boston will feed off their home crowd in Game 6 and advance to the Conference Semis.

Well, so much for Boston missing two of its best players.

In a playoff game without Ray Allen (ankle) and Rajon Rondo (served a one-game suspension), Paul Pierce and the Celtics found a way to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 2.  Other than Celtics enthusiast Scott Duhaime, I don’t’ think anybody else saw this coming.

In my Game 2 Preview, I mentioned that Pierce would have to go for 30+ if the Celtics were to win without two of their stars.  What I didn’t expect is that we would see retro Pierce, exploding for 36 points and 14 rebounds, and even pulling a Tim Tebow at mid-court during his 4^th quarter heroics for good measure.  The end result? Pierce carrying the Celtics to a victory.

How concerned should Atlanta be?

If Josh Smith’s knee injury is serious, I would say the Hawks are at a 9 out of 10 on the panic meter.   He is the clear-cut matchup advantage the Hawks have over Boston, and the biggest culprit behind their Game 1 victory.  Before his injury, he was having a decent game with 16 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists, and the Hawks were only down two at the time.

Beyond Smith, the Hawks had trouble getting into the same offensive groove they had in Game 1, thanks to a huge improvement in defensive intensity from the Celtics.  With the two stars – Smith and Joe Johnson – struggling with their shooting and going 15-38 from the floor, the lack of production from the bench proved to be a huge letdown for Atlanta.  Marvin Williams, in particular, contributed virtually nothing – scoring 3 points on 1-6 shooting in a very ineffective 21 minutes.  Considering the bench played so poorly despite being at home, asking them to step up their play in Boston is a tall order.

What to expect in Game 3

The Hawks squandered a great opportunity to take a 2-0 series lead prior to heading to Boston for Games 3 and 4 without Rondo and Allen on the floor.  Boston has been nearly unbeatable at home during the playoffs since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived in Boston in 2007-08, which epitomizes why the Hawks’ home court advantage was so crucial.  And thanks to their loss of Game 2, and potentially Josh Smith, losing home court may prove to be the crushing blow to their hopes of advancing.  Barring a miraculous healing of J-Smoove’s knee (we haven’t exactly seen such miracles in this year’s playoffs so far), Boston should win Game 3 in convincing fashion.

After the conclusion of last year’s Mavs-Thunder series – where the Mavericks dispensed the Thunder with relative ease in five games – Russell Westbrook pulled a LeBron and stormed off the court without exchanging handshakes with the Mavericks players and coaches.  Afterwards, he was heavily criticized not just for his lack of sportsmanship at the moment, but also his play.  His shot selection and apparent reluctance to let Kevin Durant be the go-to scorer was much maligned – even up to this day.   Subsequently, many were persistently questioning the ability of Westbrook to coexist with Durant.

In this year’s playoffs, it appears that questioning has halted – at least for the moment.  While Kevin Durant has struggled with his jump shot over the first two games – albeit lifting the Thunder in the waning seconds of Game 1 – it was his co-pilot Westbrook who led the charge this time around with 29 points and leading the Thunder to a Game 2 victory.  In these last two games, he’s been the steady scorer that OKC expects Durant to be.  With Dallas having only Jason Kidd – who has 17 years worth of mileage on his legs – and Roddy Beaubois –who has yet to provide the same spark as a backup point guard as JJ Barea used to – to guard him, Westbrook is the single worst matchup for the Mavericks.  A huge reason why Kevin Durant is struggling to find a rhythm is because Rick Carlisle has Shawn Marion to make Durant’s life difficult.  But they have no such answer for Westbrook, and they should take full advantage of that.

Still, the game was very much within reach for Dallas.  Had Dirk Nowitzki not missed a WIDE open three-pointer (which I’m quite shocked that he missed) and a 12-foot fadeaway in the closing minutes, the series could very well be tied.

Should Dallas be worried?

Yes.  For the second straight game, Dallas threatened to steal home court advantage from the Thunder.  But also for the second straight game, they failed to execute down the stretch.  One has to believe that Dirk will not keep missing clutch shots – particularly in Dallas over the next two games.  But they should also be worried about their lack of production from their bench.  Roddy Beaubois and Brandan Wright did not see much time on the floor (5 minutes each), chiefly due to their overall nervous play so far.  Vince Carter has logged 30+ minutes in each of the first two games, but only scored 5 points on 2-9 shooting and only attempted 2 free throws.  He did have some nice moments in these first two games, but for a guy of Carter’s caliber (and with plenty of playoff experience), he needs to play better.

What to expect in Game 3

If you’re Dallas, you have to take some positives from losing two road games by only a combined four points against a heavily favored team.  Quite reasonably, this series could easily be 2-0 in favor of Dallas.  Still, their inability to execute in crunch time in two straight close games is troubling.

If you’re OKC, you’re hoping that KD finds his shot again.  If not, you have to ride Westbrook and let him be “The Man” again, despite seemingly everyone’s preconceived notion that he shouldn’t be more than a second fiddle.

I may be just desperately clinging on to my pre-series prediction at this point, but I just can’t see Dallas going away this easily.  Being at home, I think one of Dallas’s role players – who, outside of Jason Terry, have been fairly nonexistent up to this point – will put his imprint on the series.  I also don’t think Dirk – a proven playoff performer – can choke in three straight games when the game is close.  Therefore, without feeling comfortable with the prediction at all, I say Dallas wins Game 3 fairly handily.

Mar 19, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo (9) shoots the ball as Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague (0) and power forward Josh Smith (5) defend during the second half at Philips Arena. Boston won 79-76. Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

What was the difference in Game 1?

The Hawks used their athleticism to their advantage from the get-go.  The star of the game, Josh Smith – who I still can’t understand why was left off the All-Star team this year – stuffed the stat sheet with 22 points, 18 rebounds, 4 assists and a block.  He also did a great job containing Kevin Garnett in the early going, as Garnett started off 1-9 from the field.  The Hawks’ unsung hero was Kirk Hinrich, who hit some early 3’s to help the Hawks jump out to an early lead.  Atlanta is heavily depleted in the front court without Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia, but Boston still does not have a distinct size advantage.  Both Paul Pierce (5-19) and Joe Johnson (3-15) struggled from the floor, resulting in a contest between both star players’ respective supporting casts.  In that scenario, all you can say is Advantage:  Hawks.

Most of the game was lopsided in Atlanta’s favor, but it got close after Boston rallied late all the way up to Rondo’s bumping of official Marc Davis that led to his ejection and eventual suspension.  In defense of Rondo, Davis did make two consecutive atrocious calls against Boston:  first, incorrectly giving the Hawks the ball when Josh Smith clearly hit it out-of-bounds, and then the foul call on the Celtics that directly led to Rondo’s outburst.  If not for those two bad calls, the Celtics may very well have succeeded in their comeback attempt.   Nonetheless, the Celtics will be without their star point guard in the next game at Atlanta.

What should we expect in Game 2?

Apr 29, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks power forward Josh Smith (5) scores a basket past Boston Celtics power forward Kevin Garnett (5) and power forward Brandon Bass (30) during the first half of game one in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-US PRESSWIRE

If Boston wants to steal a road win, Paul Pierce needs to come alive and score 30+ points – especially without Rondo on the floor.  He even admitted

that he “was a really big culprit” for losing Game 1.  We know Rondo will be absent, but it remains to be seen whether Celtics guard Ray Allen will play.  His ankle injury seems to be more serious than originally reported as he was expected back in the lineup before the playoffs began.  He said the injury is something he definitely needs to get surgery for in the offseason, and is only delaying the surgery to avoid being shelved for the playoffs.  As if it wasn’t predictable, Boston sure misses his three-point shooting; they were 0-11 from beyond the arc in Game 1.

As for Atlanta, they need to continue utilizing Smith’s superior athleticism against Boston’s slow and aging roster.  If they can jump out to an early lead the same way as they did in the opening minutes of Game 1, they should be in great shape.  Also, without Rondo on the floor being a pest on defense, things should really open up for Jeff Teague and Hinrich.  Given all the advantages Atlanta has, this is a must-win game for them.  And I expect that Larry Drew will convey that to his team.

In the end, the cards are stacked against Boston.  Playing without Allen is one thing, but winning without your multi-dimensional floor general is a much taller order.  Hawks should cruise to a 2-0 series lead.

Apr 28, 2012; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder small forward Kevin Durant (35) shoots the game winning shot against the Dallas Mavericks during the fourth quarter in game one of the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Richard Rowe-US PRESSWIRE

MVP candidate Kevin Durant struggled with his jump shot all night long.  But did that stop him from taking the last shot in the final seconds when Oklahoma City was down by one?

Not a chance.

Durant’s difficult, contested floater from the foul line barely dropped in before the clock struck zero, and  the Thunder escaped with a 99-98 victory against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the First Round.

Should Dallas be encouraged or discouraged?

After Dirk Nowitzki’s and-one play with 2:20 left in the fourth quarter, the Mavs were up by a comfortable seven points and had this game won.  But some costly turnovers and giving up back-to-back three point plays in the final minutes became their undoing.  Rick Carlisle and Nowitzki blamed the loss on not only these crucial mistakes in the final minutes, but also their inability to get the ball to red-hot Jason Terry (who had 20 points in the first 3 quarters, but none thereafter).  Terry’s explosion in the first half made up for a relatively so-so overall game for Dirk, who put the Mavs in a position to win when he scored 11 of his 25 points in the last 5 minutes.

Still, the Mavs should be encouraged despite the loss.  Not many expected them to be in a position to steal home court advantage, yet they really dictated play for all but the final two minutes of this game.

Apr 26, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Dallas Mavericks shooting guard Jason Terry (31) looks on against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 106-89. Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

Should Oklahoma City be encouraged or discouraged?

Durant may have provided the last-second heroics, but it was really James Harden who kept OKC in the game.  In his first game since suffering a concussion from Ron Artest’s vicious elbow, Harden scored 19 points and made several timely baskets to keep the Thunder within striking distance.

In the end, I’m not sure if the Thunder should be too high on this win.  Many of the issues that made OKC a mediocre team for the month of April aren’t going away like most expected, perhaps chief among them that Durant still can’t find consistency with his jumper.  One saving grace is that Russell Westbrook seemed to have found his shot, days after going a miserable 3-22 against the Lakers earlier last week.  Still, if not for Harden and an above-average scoring performance by Serge Ibaka (22 points), Dallas could very well have dominated this game.  Durant and Westbrook need to find ways to penetrate Dallas’s zone defense and not settle for outside jumpers,  a trend that has really hurt them all month long.

What should we expect in Game 2?

As I said in my series prediction, Dallas has no fear of the Thunder – a team they made relatively quick work of in last year’s Conference Finals.  Durant, Westbrook, and Harden all have to be playing well in order to knock off Dallas in this series.  For Dallas, as long as they can out-rebound the Thunder and get to the foul line as well as they did in Game 1, I expect Rick Carlisle to rally his guys and come out with the same effort and steal home court advantage. Either way, this is shaping up to be the best first-round series in the playoffs.

MVP  |  Coach of the Year |  Defensive Player of the Year  |  Most Improved  |  Sixth Man

And now, we come to the most hyped and coveted regular season award.  It’s safe to say that oft-injured Derrick Rose won’t defend his MVP title, so who’s up for contention this season?

My one disclaimer before going into my top 5 candidates: usually, most voters tend to select players whose teams have the best record in the league.  But I have reasons for omitting the top guns from Chicago and San Antonio, the likely East and West 1^st seeds – i.e. Derrick Rose (for obvious reasons) and Tony Parker.  Parker had a huge part in the Spurs’ success this year, but I felt the team was great for so many other reasons.  The team blossomed with Head Coach Gregg Popovich’s brilliance and being able to develop a great supporting cast that made significant contributions.  The Spurs’ great season thus resulted from a balanced attack on a nightly basis, and not so much heavy reliance on Parker.

In other words, I’m voting for the most valuable player, not the best player on the best teams.

5.  Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

April 1, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves power forward Kevin Love (42) drives to the basket on Portland Trail Blazers power forward J.J. Hickson (21) during the first quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US PRESSWIRE

After securing last season’s Most Improved award, Kevin Love had yet another monster season – averaging 26 points and 13.3 rebounds a game.  Along with rookie Ricky Rubio, Love has turned the Timberwolves franchise around.  If not for a season-ending injury to Rubio in early March and a concussion for Love, the Wolves would have been a safe bet to make the playoffs.  We all know how great of a rebounder he is, but how about his outside shooting?  He even won this year’s Three-Point shootout during All-Star weekend as a heavy underdog.  He’s also shown us his ability to make big plays down the stretch of games, making some game winners along the way (including a thrilling buzzer beater vs. the Clippers).  What you have to love about him is his confidence; in an interview early this season with NBA TV (I think), he declared himself to be the best Power Forward in the NBA, and has backed it up completely.  Most importantly, he’s easily a top-2 pick in next year’s fantasy draft.

4.  Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Apr 15, 2012; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks guard Iman Shumpert (21) defends Miami Heat shooting guard Dwyane Wade (3) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Miami won 93-85. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

I know, I know.  He has LeBron on his team, and Miami went 12-1 without him.  But don’t let any of that fool you.  Although he’s sat out a handful of games due to injury, he has had his fair share of production (he’s THIRD in the league in PER) and 4^th-quarter explosions and buzzer beaters.  You also see his whole team (LeBron included) defer to him in crunch time; this has been a lot more evident this season than last.  You can always count on him to step up his game when it counts.  When Wade dominates the playoffs this year – just as he did last year when LeBron shrunk in the playoffs’ biggest moments – just remember how valuable he really is to this team.

3.  Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City

April 20, 2012; Sacramento, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder small forward Kevin Durant (35) shoots the ball over Sacramento Kings small forward Travis Outlaw (25) during the first quarter at Power Balance Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

This year’s MVP race has widely been viewed as a two-man race between KD and LeBron.  To me, though, the team’s subpar play in the month of April really hurts him here.  Still, Durantula has had an overall amazing season.  He’s currently edging Kobe Bryant for the scoring title – an honor we will take for granted, as he’s a virtual lock to win it for the next decade.   But he has also stepped up his defense and rebounding proficiency.  If not for a bad taste in my mouth after a mediocre April for the Thunder, I would have agreed with the majority and placed him as a top-2 candidate.  Nevertheless, at only 23 years old, his time is bound to come soon as a perennial MVP candidate.

2.  Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers

April 22, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) controls the ball as New Orleans Hornets shooting guard Marco Belinelli (8) looks on in the first half of the game at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

Because of the media frenzy surrounding the Clippers upon the acquisition of Chris Paul and the resulting lofty expectations, he’s not getting as much credit as he deserves for turning around the league’s (arguably) worst franchise.  Until tonight, the Clippers had a chance to win their first-ever Pacific Division title if the Lakers dropped their season finale vs. the Kings (which, due to the significance of the Kings’ last game in Sacramento, is a distinct possibility).  Because that was even within reach, you have to give Chris Paul all the credit in the world.  The team struggled mightily after losing Chauncey Billups to injury, but Paul has found a way to keep the Clippers among one of the league’s elite teams.  He managed to bring his team out of the mid-season rut and has them finishing the regular season on a high note.

1.  LeBron James, Miami Heat

April 13, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) during a game against the Charlotte Bobcats at the American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

I’ve been anti-LeBron-for-MVP in seasons past as passionately as anyone.  But this season, it’s hard to ignore the heavy lifting he’s done for this team.  Sure – a handful of his 4^th quarters have been mediocre at best, but his body of work throughout the regular season on a nightly basis has been spectacular.    For every game where he’s faded in the 4^th, there’s been many, many more games where he’s dominated opponents and put games out of reach early.  He is the landslide leader in PER (as always), and has even shown improvements on both ends of the floor – especially defensively.  Most importantly, he had the Heat finishing the season strong after many doubts started surfacing about their mediocre play earlier this month.  Even with Bosh and Wade taking some games off in the last few weeks, LeBron has led the team to secure a #2 seed in the East.

Other Award Predictions:

Coach of the Year |  Defensive Player of the Year  |  Most Improved  |  Sixth Man

*By the way, I don’t think you need to ask why I didn’t write a Rookie of the Year prediction.  Congrats, Kyrie – well deserved.

MVP - Defensive Player of the Year - Most Improved - Sixth Man

Of all the regular season awards to give out, this particular year’s honor may be the most difficult to choose with several worthy candidates.  In general, this award has been given out to coaches of teams who exceed expectations by a great margin.  Since we have so many such coaches this year, we also have to look at who has done more with less.  Let’s get on with it.

Apr 17, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Doug Collins during the third quarter against the Indiana Pacers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Pacers defeated the Sixers 102-97. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

5.  Doug Collins, Philadelphia 76ers

A team that took the league by storm until their recent free fall to 8^th in the East, the 76ers were not expected to improve this much from last season.  After looking helpless against Miami in last year’s playoffs, the team stayed relatively pat during the offseason.  Then, they stormed out of the gates and achieved a 20-9 record by mid-February.  If they played the same way they did the first half of the season, they would easily have won the Atlantic Division, and Collins may have been the odds-on favorite for this award.

4.  Frank Vogel, Indiana Pacers

Apr 17, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Indiana Pacers head coach Frank Vogel during the first quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Pacers defeated the Sixers 102-97. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

Since taking over for Jim O’Brien last season, Frank Vogel has shown nothing but promise in a head coaching role.  He guided the struggling Pacers to an 8^th seed in the 2011 playoffs, where the Pacers managed to give the 1^st-seeded Chicago Bulls a real scare in the first round.  This year, he has once again exceeded expectations, and has his team peaking at the right time heading into the playoffs as a 3^rd seed.  He has helped develop Roy Hibbert into an All-Star center, and has schemed most of the offense to start with him instead of relying completely on Danny Granger.  As a result, the whole team has gotten better.  Of all the teams heading into the playoffs, the Pacers may be the most overlooked.  Watch out for Vogel and company to give Miami some problems in the second round of the playoffs.

3.  Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics

April 1, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics head coach Doc Rivers on the sideline during the first quarter against the Miami Heat at TD Banknorth Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

With one devastating blow after another, the Celtics looked dead in the water.  Both Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox had season-ending heart surgeries – in Green’s case, it was before the season even started.  Rajon Rondo missed a handful of games (which made him almost get left off the All-Star team).  Already with a very shallow frontcourt, Jermaine O’Neal has been shut down for the season.  With Ray Allen also gimpy, the Celtics looked old and fried.  But since the All-Star break when they were a subpar 15-17, the Celtics have gone 22-10 and have won the Atlantic Division.  Doc Rivers has once again instilled belief in his squad that the Celtics can still be a threat to win it all.  Even subtle moves such as moving Kevin Garnett to the Center position – which has revived his career –  and bringing Ray Allen off the bench in favor of second-year player Avery Bradley, makes you realize how gifted Rivers has become as a coach.

Apr 3, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich points in the second quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

2.  Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs

Before the season started, the Spurs looked cooked.  Much like Boston, nearly everyone in the media thought they were too old to win and dismissed them as legitimate contenders.  Even though they were the #1 seeded team last season (and were upset by the 8^th-seeded Memphis), you get the feeling that they will make a little more noise in the playoffs this time around.

1.  Tom Thibodeau, Chicago Bulls

Mar 17, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau reacts to a call during the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at the United Center. The Bulls won 89-80. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE

The media has historically hesitated giving out back-to-back Coach of the Year awards, but I just can’t get myself to ignore what last year’s winner Tom Thibodeau accomplished this season.  We all know how often the reigning MVP Derrick Rose has been unable to play, yet he somehow has them on pace to finish atop the Eastern Conference.  Let’s not forget that Luol Deng and Rip Hamilton have missed a number of games, as well.  In only his second year as head coach, he became the fastest to win 100 games as a new head coach in league history (losing only 30 games on the way there).  The way Thibodeau has been able to develop his bench players – Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, CJ Watson –is nothing short of remarkable.  He even got John freaking Lucas III to become an impactful player off Chicago’s bench.  Considering he held off teams like Miami, San Antonio, and OKC to hold the league’s best record, I just have to give him the nod.